Damaging Winds in North Carolina, May 13, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2002

******HAVING PROBLEMS WITH 18Z UA RUN---MAY NOT BE AVAILABLE*******

SHORT TERM...
FIRST ROUND OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION SKIRTING BY TO OUR NORTHWEST.
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION AHEAD/ALONG STRONG COLD FRONT LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MODERATE RISK CONTINUES
FOR THE CWA. NGM/ETA/M-ETA SIMILAR ON SPEED OF FRONT(CENTRAL
NCAROLINA AT 00Z...COAST 06Z)...AVN SLIGHTLY FASTER. PREFER SLOWER
TREND AS EXPECT ACTUAL FRONT TO HANG UP OVER MOUNTAINS AND PRE
FRONTAL SQUALL TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM ABOUT 21Z TO HOUR OR SO
EITHER SIDE OF 00Z...THEN JUST SOME SHOWERS WITH ACTUAL FRONT.
AIR MASS QUITE WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE. STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW/MID
LEVEL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY 00Z.
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE.
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...RAPID CLEARING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...
THEN COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND DRY.
HOWEVER POTENT S/W DIVING SOUTHEAST WILL ROTATE THROUGH BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF CWA. LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE AND STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER DO EXPECT SOME
STRATOCU. CAA...THICKNESS DROP ABOUT 60 METERS AND 850 TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURE THICKNESS SCHEME
INDICATE READINGS IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE.
WINDS DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
LOWS IN THE 40S.

EXTENDED......WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY....
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY AND MOISTURE RETURNING. STILL
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. LATEST TRENDS
INDICATE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE
NIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOOKS TO BE MAINLY FIRST HALF...HOWEVER
DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WONT FINE TUNE THAT MUCH...LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST. SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

.RDU...NONE.

RA

NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-083-084-132100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2002

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA WEST OF I-95...

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS
EVENING. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE HELPED CREATE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAVE MADE
CONDITIONS RIPE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 70 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH -- NUMBER 301 -- IS IN EFFECT ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM WARRENTON TO LOUISBURG... TO RALEIGH... TO
SANFORD... TO SOUTHERN PINES... TO HAMLET.  THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING... MOVING INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE EVENING.

THIS NEW WATCH REPLACES SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 298 THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE TRIAD AREA WESTWARD... AND WHICH EXPIRED AT 3
PM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS. KEEP AN EYE ON THE SKY AND SEEK SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

HARTFIELD