Damaging Wind in North Carolina, March 31, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
135 PM EST SUN MAR 31 2002

SEVERE TSTM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CWA TILL 7 PM. ALL OF CWA IN
WARM SECTOR AND BOUNDARY BTWN FAY AND RDU IS EARLY FOCUS WITH BETTER
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. OTHER ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT OVER WRN CWA AND
CNTRL SC AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCES WITH APPROACHING JET.
CURRENT ZONE WORDING OF OF SVR MENTION AND NEAR 100% POPS. MODELS
FAIRLY SIMILAR IN MOVING SURFACE LOW NE OUT OF N GA TOWARD DELMARVA
REGION BY 06Z TONIGHT. BULK OF UVVS LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH VORT
MOVING ACROSS LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO
EXIT COAST NEAR 12Z THEREFORE PCPN ENDING BY THEN. MON SHOULD SEE
RAPID CLEARING AND FAIR WEATHER THROUGH TUE. NOT TOO MUCH
DISCREPANCY WITH TEMPS AS THEY REBOUND WED AHD OF NEXT FRONT.

WED-SUN: NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WED OR EARLY THU BUT
WILL JUST GO FOR INCREASED CLDNS WED/THU AND NOT REINTRODUCE PCPN.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FRI/SAT WITH RETURN FLOW AND NORMAL TEMPS BY
SUN.

CWF: WILL CONTINUE MARGINAL SCA FOR WATERS SINCE LLJ SHOULD MIX DOWN
THIS AFTN AND EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY MON
MORNING.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
FCSTID = 01
ILM   58  73  45  75 /  100  10   0  0
LBT   54  69  41  75 /  100   0   0  0
FLO   56  70  44  77 /  100   0   0  0
MYR   59  72  47  73 /  100  10   0  0

.ILM...
NC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SURF CITY TO N LITTLE RIVER INLET.
SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LITTLE RIVER INLET TO S SANTEE RIVER.

RWA

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-010600-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1125 AM EST SUN MAR 31 2002

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

A FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
AREA...AND ALLOW THE AIRMASS TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE DUE TO GOOD
HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT...AND CROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AS A RESULT...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ALONG
WITH LARGE HAIL. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
CONDUCIVE TO LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT SINCE NETWORK ACTIVATION
MAY BE REQUIRED. RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS ISSUED THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

SRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC
1244 PM EST SUN MAR 31 2002

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1242 PM    MCCOLL                    SC   1.00 INCH HAIL
03/31/02   MARLBORO                       REPORTED BY SPOTTER PEA TO
                                          PING PONG SIZE HAIL.

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC
1245 PM EST SUN MAR 31 2002

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1243 PM    1SW MCCOLL                SC   .75 INCH HAIL
03/31/02   MARLBORO                       REPORTED BY PUBLIC DIME
                                          SIZE HAIL

DL