Hail in North Carolina, March 31, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...PRELIMINARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
156 PM EST SUN MAR 31 2002

AS FAR AS THE TONIGHT PERIOD GOES IN THE ZFP...12 HR POPS WILL BE
AT LEAST LIKELY FOR TS/SHRA UNTIL SCOURING COLD FRONT MOVES THRU
LATER THIS EVENING. WILL RE-EXAMINE DETAILS CLOSER TO ZFP ISSUANCE
TIME FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM.

OVERNIGHT...STILL EXPECT CLEARING EAST OF THE MTNS...WITH LINGERING
CLDS & BZY CONDS IN THE NC MTNS. WILL HANG ONTO GOING SMALL POPS
FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN N MTNS.

DRY WESTERLY FLOW THRU A DEEP LAYER DEVELOPS ON MONDAY & AFTER
A BZY-WDY MORNING...HIPRES WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE CWFA...LOOSENING
GRADIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. BROAD SW FLOW DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY
AS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE DEVELOPS ON RETURN FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF APRCHG COLD FRONT.

12Z AVN LOOKS TO BE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS IN BRINGING IN
MEASURABLE PCPN IN THE NC MTNS EARLY WED AM...& THEN ACRS THE
BALANCE OF CWFA THRU 18Z AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE CWFA IN THE
AFTERNOON. UNABLE TO VIEW ETAX DATA TO COMPARE TIMING...SO BEST
TO LEAVE CURRENT PCPN TIMING AS IS...LIMITED TO DAYTIME HOURS
ON WEDNESDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...CWFA REMAINS IN A GENERAL WNW FLOW ALOFT...SOUTH
OF THE BEST CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW THU & FRI WITH LLVL RIDGE CENTER
MOVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO NE U.S. OVERALL ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES
TO LOOK DRY ENOUGH & ANY FORCING WEAK ENOUGH TO CONTINUE CURRENT DRY
FCST...BUT EASTERLY LLVL FLOW MAY RESULT IN MORE CLOUDINESS THAN WE
CURRENTLY HAVE ADVERTISED. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL INCREASE CLD PCT
IN MATRICES FOR THU NITE THRU FRI NITE. ON DAY 7...OPMRF TRANSLATES
HIPRES WELL OFFSHORE...ALLOWING DEEPER RH TO INCREASE ACRS REGION ON
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW. PREFERRED TRENDS OF ECMWF/MRF ENSEMBLE
MEANS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO...SO WILL KEEP SUNDAY
DRY.

FCSTID = 55

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-312100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1152 AM EST SUN MAR 31 2002

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND IS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA...ESPECIALLY NEAR
AND TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CLARKESVILLE GEORGIA...TO GREENVILLE
SOUTH CAROLINA...TO STATESVILLE NORTH CAROLINA.

WHILE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED
FLOODING COULD QUICKLY DEVELOP FROM HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

ALL INTERESTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AND KEEP POSTED ON WEATHER STATEMENTS...WATCHES...OR WARNINGS WHICH
MAY BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. BE PREPARED TO TAKE
QUICK ACTION IF THREATENING WEATHER IS SIGHTED OR A WARNING IS
ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS
OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

HANDEL