Hail and Damaging Wind in North Carolina, March 26, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
220 PM EST TUE MAR 26 2002

THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONTINUES.
GREATEST THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY PRESENT. MOST OF CENTRAL NC HAS
WARMED CONSIDERABLY INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. LINGERING COOL
POOL CONFINED TO VA BORDER REGION AND RETREATING RAPIDLY.

WILL INCLUDE WIDESPREAD SHRAS/TSRAS FOR TONIGHTS FORECAST AND HAVE
THEM DIMINISH LATE THIS EVE/AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. LOW LEVELS DRY OUT SLOWLY BEHIND
COLD FRONT SO WILL WORD FORECAST AS GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF WEAK TROF THAT PASSES THROUGH AREA ON
FRIDAY SHOULD RESULT N PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ONLY. GUIDANCE TEMPS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD....MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME MODELS AVN/CANADIAN
WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME ON THE FRONT. MRF/UKMET SEEM
INCLINED TO BRING THINGS THROUGH FROM SATURDAY TO MONDAY. THE PARENT
LOW WILL BE FAR TO THE NORTH OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH BEST LIFT AROUND
IT AND SHEARING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THIS REGION OF THE COUNTRY.
THUS WILL JUST INCLUDE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND GO
WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION.

.RAH...SVR WW 43 WESTERN PORTIONS OF PIEDMONT THROUGH 600 PM.

BLAES/CLINE