Damaging Winds in North Carolina, July 20, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
234 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2002

DEEP DOWNSLOPE AND W-NW SFC TRAJ HAVE HELPED STAVE OFF CONVECTION
AND HAS KEPT SEA BREEZE PINNED TO THE COAST SO FAR. IF SEA BRZ
FAILS TO IGNITE STORMS THIS AFTN THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO LATER THIS
EVENING AS POTENT SWIRL OVER CNTRL NC MOVES E. PLENTY LIFT INDICATED
ALG SHEAR AXIS OF VORT AS IT MOVES INTO ERN NC. HIGH LOWER TROP CAPE
WITH COOLING AND DIV ALOFT TNGT WILL AID UPDRAFTS.

PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
UPPER LOW CIRCULATES OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS AND LOWERING
HEIGHTS HEAT ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MARINE: WK TROF IS LOCATED FRM NR OREGON INLET WWD TO CSTL PLN. MDLS
EASE IT ONLY A BIT FURTHER S OVN. THIS MAY HOLD TRUE BUT CONVECTION
THAT WL BE ARND HERE LTR MAY DRAG FNT A BIT FURTHER S THAN GUID
INDICATES...WL MONITOR. TREND FOR SUNDAY WL BE FOR THE TROF TO
REFORM BACK TO THE W WITH A S/SW FLOW AGAIN BECMG DOMINATE. TROF
REMAINS W OF THE CSTL WTRS AND SNDS DURING MOST OF THE EXTND PERIOD
WITH FRISKY S/SW FLOW. WL KP CONDS BLO SCA TNT WL SEAS 3 FT N AND
MAINLY 4 FT S.

MHX...NONE.

COLBY/GATES

NCZ103-104-202000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
245 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2002

...LIGHTNING STORM TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS...

A THUNDERSTORM MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH ACROSS THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL BRING FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS
FROM NAGS HEAD TO DUCK.

BEACH-GOERS IN THIS AREA SHOULD SEEK AN INDOOR LOCATION AS
THE LIGHTNING HAS BEEN VERY ACTIVE. THE DARE COUNTY FIRE
DEPARTMENT HAS BEEN DISPATCHED TO THE DUCK AREA WHERE
SEVERAL TREES WERE REPORTED ON FIRE.

IF YOU HERE THUNDER...THIS IS THE TIME TO SEEK SHELTER.
ON THE BEACH AND NEAR WATER IS GOING TO BE A DANGEROUS
PLACE TO BE FROM NAGS HEAD TO DUCK THROUGH 400 PM DUE TO THE
NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES.

COLBY