Hail in North Carolina, August 19, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
335 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2002

MID LVL VORT EVIDENT IN VSBL SE OF CLKN7 WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
POSITIONED WELL S OF THE SWIRL AND NEWER UPDRAFTS BELOW THE VORTS
CNTR. THIS FTR MOVG AWAY AND MAIN EFFECT IS THROW-BACK CI AND
SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR ERN ZONES CURRENTLY. RCNT CONVECTION OVER SE NC
LIKELY AIDED BY IMPULSE ALOFT OVER COASTAL SC AND RECENT TCU DVLPMT
ACRS SE VA BE HELPED ALG BY STG LOW TROP HEAT AND WEAK S-WAVE APRCHG
THAT RGN. ALL ELSE CONSIDERED WILL HAVE TO KEEP ERLY EVE SCT POP AS
EXPECT TSTMS TO FILL A BIT ACRS ERN NC.

TUE A WEAK SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FM NC SWWD WILL INTERACT WITH LEE
TROF CONVERGENCE AND ADEQUATE COLUMN MSTR TO PRODUCE SCT CONVECTION.

STG RDG ALOFT BUILDS INTO MID ATLC FM MID WEEK ON. ITS AXIS XTNG NWD
WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN A LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES CELL THAT DROPS OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES USHERING SLIGHTLY MORE PLEASNAT DWPTS BY WED BUT
WITH THICKNESS VALUES ALOFT COOLING ONLY MINOR THOUGH IT WILL FEEL A
BIT NICER DUE TO LOWER HUMIDITY. TIME SECTIONS CLEARLY DEPICT MAJOR
DRYING FROM 1 MILE OFF THE SFC UPWARD TO JET STREAM LVLS BEGINNING
WED AS UPR RDG SHIFTS EWD...SO RAIN WILL BE HARD TO COME BY FROM MID
WEEK ON.

MARINE: WENT WIND AN AVN SOLN WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL MOVEMENT WHICH
BRINGS BNDRY ACROSS AREA WED AND S WED NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SW FLOW 10
TO 15 KT. BRIEF NE SURGE WED WILL AVERAGE 15 KT. COULD SEE A PERIOD
OF 20 KT N OF HAT AND LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS.
WINDS FALL OUT WED NIGHT AND THU AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS OVR THE
REGION. AVN MOVES A LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION THU NIGHT AND
OFFSHORE ERLY FRI WITH A SLGT INC IN SPEEDS. NO FLAGS EXPECTED
THROUGH SAT.

.MHX...NONE.

COLBY/ELARDO

NCZ090-092-093-095-098-192030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT-MOREHEAD CITY NC
325 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2002

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ONSLOW...CARTERET...CRAVEN...
JONES AND DUPLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 323 PM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18 MILES WEST OF
WALLACE TO HAVELOCK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR WALLACE AT 330 PM EDT...JACKSONVILLE AT
345 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED BY THE STORMS INCLUDE
NORTH TOPSAIL BEACH AND SWANSBORO.

DIME TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED NEAR WALLACE AT 315 PM
EDT...BUT THE STORM PRODUCING THE HAIL HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED INTO
NORTHERN PENDER COUNTY.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN ON
AREA ROADWAYS TO AVOID HYDROPLANING. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING AN
EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

JBM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
333 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0315 PM    WALLACE                   NC   1.75 IN HAIL
08/19/02   DUPLIN                         DIME TO GOLFBALL SIZE
                                          HAIL REPORTED BY DUPLIN
                                          COUNTY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
351 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0340 PM                              NC   1.00 IN HAIL
08/19/02   ONSLOW                         REPORTED BY ONSLOW COUNTY
                                          911.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
351 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0340 PM    HAWS RUN                  NC   1.00 IN HAIL
08/19/02   ONSLOW                         REPORTED BY ONSLOW COUNTY
                                          911.

CORRECTED TO INDICATE CITY LOCATION

JBM