Flash Flood in North Carolina, August 17, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
307 PM EDT SAT AUG 17 2002

ZONAL FLOW WL CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THERE IS A BIT A WEAKNESS STILL IN THE SRN STREAM BETWEEN DEEP HIGH
PRESSURE OF THE SE COAST...AND OVER S TEXAS. ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THIS TROF...AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST W/PWS AROUND 2 INCHES ON THIS
MORNINGS BNA SOUNDING. LAST TWO DAYS HAVE SEEN WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE PCPN OVER THE CWA...MUCH OF IT FALLING DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. FLOW IS A LITTLE MORE WLY TDA THAN BEFORE...BUT WITH
THE STRONGEST VORT OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS POISED TO CROSS THE CWA
TNGT...THINK CONVECTION WL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AGAIN THIS
EVENING...PARTICULARLY E OF THE MTNS IN THE NC FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.

FOR SUNDAY....FLOW IS NW AND PW/S ARE PROGGED TO DROP ABOUT A
QUARTER INCH. ALL IN ALL LOOKS LIKE MUCH LESS COVERAGE AND A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER.

WE CURRENTLY HAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND DRY TUESDAY. THIS
MIGHT BE BACKWARDS CONSIDERING THE LATEST RUN OF THE GLOBAL...BUT WL
NOT CHANGE YET AS RH IS STILL RATHER HIGH ON MONDAY...AND THE FROPA
TIMING FOR TUE IS STILL IN DOUBT.

EXTENDED...CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FA WED AND
THU...AIR MASS TS ACTIVITY WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION ATTM. WILL
INTRODUCE CHANCE TS FOR THE MTNS FRI AS MOISTURE WILL BUILD AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OVER THE ATLANTIC.
OP AVN BRINGS A POTENT LATE AUGUST COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
SAT. THE ACTUAL STRENGTH WILL PROBABLY BE LESS THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED...BUT DO FEEL THAT BLANKET POPS WILL PAN OUT. LITTLE
CHANGE TO CURRENT TEMP FORECAST WILL TWEAK TO REFLECT LATEST MAV AND
HPC GUIDANCE.

FCSTID =   14
GSP   70  92  70  92 /  60  60  30  40
AND   71  93  71  93 /  60  60  30  40
CLT   70  92  70  93 /  70  70  30  40
HKY   70  90  70  91 /  70  70  30  40
AVL   67  85  67  87 /  50  50  40  50

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

MCAVOY/NED

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-172345-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
115 PM EDT SAT AUG 17 2002

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

A MOIST...UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...AND THE SAME THING WILL OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE A
LITTLE STRONGER AND A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE IS A LITTLE TOO WARM AND MOIST FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO
TONIGHT...WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND DIME SIZED
HAIL.

THE STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN. WHILE THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY TODAY...A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY STILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME...AND RISK OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO EXIST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

MCAVOY