Damaging Wind in New York, May 31, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
410 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2002

TWO LARGE AREAS OF THNDSTRMS AFFECTING FA THIS PM. SVR THNDSTRM
WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE CWA. FIRST LINE OF THNDSTRMS MOVG THRU
ERN PTN FA ATTM...WL BE EXITING RGN WITHIN NEXT HR. THIS LINE
OF STORMS ASSOCD WITH PREFRONTAL TROF. SECOND AREA OF STORMS RACING
ACRS NRN NYS ATTM...WL MOVE ACRS CHMPLN VLY BY AROUND 5 PM AND EXIT
FA BY AROUND 7 PM. THIS AREA OF STORMS GENERATED BY CDFNT AND ASSOCD
STG SHRTWV. MAIN SVR WX THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WL CONTINUE TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS IN TONITE BEHIND FRONT...ALLOWING FOR
P/C AND DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SAT AM.

SECONDARY CDFNT/SHRTWV TROF WL DROP SOUTH THRU FA LATER SAT/SAT
EVENING. AVN MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN OTHER MODELS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE. WITH NO APPRECIABLE COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH MOVES
THRU FA THIS EVENING (MAX TEMPS SAT EXPECTED TO BE IN 70S)...XPC
SUFFICIENT INSTABILTY FOR DVLPMNT OF LATE PM SHWRS/THNDSTRMS WITH
THE APRCH OF CDFNT. STRONG WIND FIELDS CONTINUE OVR THE AREA...SO
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WNDS WITH ANY TNDSTRMS THAT DVLP.

SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NITE...
ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE AND TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

EXTENDED: WL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING OF DRY WX FOR FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WNW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO KEEP PCPN SUPPRESSED
SOUTH OF FA. UPR FLOW BCMS MORE SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY WITH APRCH OF
SHRTWV TROF...SO WL CONTINUE WITH CHC SHWRS THURS...AND LEAVE IN
MENTION OF PCPN FRI AS LOW PRES FORECASTED TO TRACK ACRS RGN.

.BTV...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES
UNTIL 7 OR 8 PM EDT.

RJS

NYZ026>031-034-035-VTZ001>012-312000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1148 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2002

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS AFTERNOON...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
THERE HAVE BEEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS VERMONT
AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.
THE GREATEST WEATHER THREAT WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  HEAVY RAINS AND HAIL MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.  WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING...THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END.

PERSONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MUCH OF VERMONT SHOULD TAKE THE
NECESSARY ACTION AND PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR ANY MEDIA
OUTLET THAT PROVIDES YOU WITH THE LATEST PRODUCTS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...WHICH ARE SPECIFICALLY DESIGNED TO KEEP YOU
INFORMED DURING SUCH POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WEATHER SITUATIONS.

NYZ026>031-034-035-VTZ001>012-010000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
230 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2002

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK UNTIL 7PM AND VERMONT UNTIL 8PM...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OF NEAR OR IN EXCESS
OF 60 MILES AN HOUR OR LARGE HAIL...3/4 OF AN INCH OR LARGER. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO SPAWN A TORNADO. HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY
CAUSE FLOODING AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE ALSO LIKELY PRESENT IN A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ISSUES A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WHEN
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. DURING A WATCH SITUATION
YOU SHOULD LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR COMMERCIAL MEDIA FOR
FURTHER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON TRIGGERING THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.