High Wind in New York, May 14, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
955 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2002

A FEW REPORTS OF WET SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES. THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME WHITE STUFF WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD
UPPER LOW AND -2C TO -4C COLD POOL AT 850MB MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS AS COOL AND WET FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND AND EVEN
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

*** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS ***

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE RAINY
DAY TO THE REGION. COLD UNSTABLE AIR WILL YIELD MORE OF A SHOWERY
TYPE OF PCPN WITH AMOUNTS OF AN ADDL 1/4-1/2 EXPECTED TODAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 25 MPH.
ALL IN ALL A VERY WET, COLD, WINDY DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA.

LOW FINALLY PULLS OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH PCPN ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.  DRYING OUT PERIOD IS SHORT
HOWEVER AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

PROBLEM OF THE DAY ARE HYDRO CONCERNS AS AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS
RUNNING HIGH. TROUBLE CREEKS ARE OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT AND BLACK
CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE. EVENING RFC GUIDANCE TOOK BOTH THESE OVER FLOOD
STAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. RE-RUN BY THE RFC AT 3AM,  WITH PCPN JUST
UNDER 1/2, CONTINUES TO SHOW GARBUTT GOING OVER FLOOD STAGE. AT
CHURCHVILLE BLACK CREEK RISES TO WITH 0.2 OF FLOOD STAGE. WILL ISSUE
A FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE TWO CREEKS FOR THIS EVE/TNGT. OTHER CREEKS
AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED TOO.

.BUF...FLOOD WATCH FOR OATKA CREEK AND BLACK CREEK.