Damaging Wind in New York, August 2, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
315 AM EDT FRI AUG 2 2002

ITS IMPORTANT TO LEARN FROM HISTORY...AND TODAYS MODEL DEPICTION OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN IS A PERFECT EXAMPLE.
FIRST OF ALL...THE AVN HAS OUTPERFORMED ITS GRID POINT COUNTERPART
(ETA) SINCE LAST WINTER AND CONTINUES TO DO SO. THE AVN IS SLOWER IN
DRAGGING THE WEAKENING COOL FRONT ACROSS WRN NEW YORK...AND HAS A
LARGER AREAL COVERAGE OF RW/TRW. MUCH OF THE LARGER COVERAGE IS A
FAULT OF THE AVN...BUT IT STILL SHOWS MORE REALISTIC PCPN COVERAGE
THAN THE DRY ETA.

THIS FRONT IS YET ANOTHER IN A LONG LIST OF PUNCHLESS FRONTS THAT
HAVE LIMPED SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA...AND HAVE HAD LITTLE IF ANY RELIEF
IN THEIR WAKE. THAT IS WHERE LEARNING FROM THE PAST COMES INTO PLAY.
AGAIN...AVN IS NOT NEARLY AS DRY AS PAST RUNS NOR AS DRY AS CURRENT
ETA RUN. GIVEN NATURE OF FRONTS AND TENDENCY OF MODEL RUNS...WILL NOT
PLAY UP COOLING (ONLY LIMITED TD RELIEF).

SPEAKING OF COOLING...OUR H8 TEMPS OF 19-20C THIS AM ARE ONLY
PROJECTED TO LOWER INTO MID TEENS TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS
WILL ONLY ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BEFORE
CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FORNTAL PASSAGE IS
ALREADY LIFTING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO (SEE WV IMG) WITH H5
HEIGHTS ON THE RISE OVER THE WESTERN GR LAKES. THIS TREND WILL NOT
TAKE LONG TO TRANSLATE INTO RISING HEIGHTS HERE WITH H8 TEMPS
RETURNING TO UPPER TEENS FOR SUNDAY.

...MESOSCALE DISCO FOR TODAY...

JUST HAVE A HARD TIME IMAGINING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING THROUGH
THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIRES DRY TODAY. HAVE RETURNED CHC POPS TO WRN
ZONES AS THE FRONT IS JUST OOZING TO THE SOUTHEAST. VERY JUICY
AIRMASS W/ PWS OF 1.75 IS JUST AWAITING THIS PASSAGE...AND IF THE
RUC40 FORECAST CAPES CAN BE BELIEVED...WRN COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE
CAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LIS OF -8 TO -10
ARE ALSO DEPICTED...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO BE
FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE. ETA CAPES ARE HALF OF THOSE FROM RUC.

SPC HAS OUTLINED OUT EASTERN CWA (BASICALLY EAST OF ROC AND DSV) IN
A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR TODAY...AND THIS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN
SPEED OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THAT THAT AREA WILL
RECEIVE BEFORE TRWS THIS PM.

WB ZERO HEIGHTS ABV 11K WITH PLENTY OF CAPE CAN CERTAINLY SUPPORT
SMALL HAIL OVER THE CWA...WITH MARGINAL SEVERE (3/4) POSSIBLE IN THE
RISK AREA OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. TRW
WIND GUST THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY MID LEVEL DRY AIR (SEEN ON H7
PLOT AND DTW 00Z SOUNDING)...BUT UPPER LEVEL WINDS FOR DOWNWARD
TRANSPORT ARE UNIMPRESSIVE.

.BUF...NONE

RSH

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-022045-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 2 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY...

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL EASE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE TODAY...AND
WHILE DOING SO...WILL PLOW THROUGH A VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GENERATED DURING THIS
PROCESS...WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY CONTAINING SMALL HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS.

THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOUND EAST OF A LINE FROM JAMESTOWN...GENESEO...ROCHESTER TO
WATERTOWN. THIS INCLUDES MUCH OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...THE
FINGER LAKES REGION AND PART OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

SKYWARN ACTIVIATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
INFORMATION FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS AS THE
LATE AFTERNOON APPROACHES.

REPORT ANY SEVERE REPORTS OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AND/OR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/BUF