Wildfire in New Jersey, August 15 to 28, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1045 AM EDT THU AUG 15 2002

CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. SOME CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM JUST
WEST OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY IN THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY BUT THE
CURRENT PARTLY SUNNY SHOULD HANDLE THE SITUATION. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AROUND (DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S) AND VORT MAX MOVING BY
JUST TO THE NORTH...SPC HAS EASTERN PA AND WESTERN NJ IN SLIGHT
RISK. SPS HAS BEEN REISSUED. EXCESSIVE HEAT CONTINUES AS WELL AND
NPW HAS ALSO BEEN REISSUED.  WILL NEED TO TAKE A SECOND LOOK AT
FRIS TEMPS TO SEE IF EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS STILL WARRANTED FOR
TOMORROW.

PREV AFD BELOW
##################################################################

DISC: THE WESTERN ATLC BOOK-END REMAINS ALONG THE COAST THRU
SUNDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES BY BRINGING AN END TO THE
CURRENT HOT SPELL SUN NIGHT. BEFORE THEN HOWEVER...HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY ALTHO TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGRESS LOWER THAN
PAST TWO DAYS BUT STILL IN THE MID 90S. SHOWERS/TSMS OCCURED EARLY
WED MRNG IN BERKS CO AND TSTMS ALMOST INTO OUR PCOONO ZONES IN THE
AFTERNOON. A LARGE PART OF THE CFA IS UNDER A THREAT OF SVR TSTMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S
WILL COMBINE TO BRING HIS OF 100-105 IN THE HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS
A FEW MILES EITHER SIDE OF DELAWARE RIVER. TEMP AT PHL AIRPORT IS 79
AT 4 AM. WE SHOULD DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES BUT IF WE DONT WELL
BREAK THE HIGH MIN FOR THE DATE OF 78 LAST SET IN 1988. THE RECORD
FOR TODAY IS 98 SET IN 1988 WHICH IS ALSO THE YEAR WHICH HAS THE
DISTINCTION OF BEING THE COLDEST YEAR FOR OCEAN TEMPERATURES SINCE
1911. IN A TWO WEEK STRETCH THE OCEAN DROPPED FROM 80 DEGREES TO A
RECORD SETTING COLD OF 53 DEGREES WITH A READING OF 49 ON AUG 15TH
AROUND ABSECON INLET.

ON FRI TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 90 WITH CLDS AND
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE DEW POINTS WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
AND IT WILL REMAIN VERY HUMID. LATEST RUN OF THE HEAT INDICES SEE US
BARELY REACHING THE THRESHOLD BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAVE
HEAT WARNING AS IS AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK WITH LATE MORNING MODEL
RUNS.

RECORDS TODAY ARE (ALL 1988) ABE 97- ACY 100- ILG 98- PHL 98  AND
RDG 96. GED 95 IN 1985 - TTN 93 IN 1959.

ANY TSTMS LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY HEAVY RAIN IN AN AIRMASS
WITH PWS >1.5 INCHES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

PERSISTENT S TO SW WIND ON THE BAY AND OCEAN BUT REMAINING BELOW SCA.

HAVE A GOOD DAY

FCSTID = 16
ABE   93  73  85  73 /  30  30  40  40
RDG   93  73  85  73 /  30  30  40  40
PHL   94  74  90  73 /  30  30  40  40
12N   91  73  83  73 /  30  30  40  40
SMQ   91  73  82  73 /  30  30  40  40
TTN   94  74  86  74 /  30  30  40  40
MIV   91  75  82  75 /  20  30  40  40
ACY   85  76  80  76 /  20  30  40  40
ILG   94  74  86  74 /  30  30  40  40
DOV   94  76  88  75 /  30  30  40  40
GED   94  76  88  75 /  30  30  40  40
ESN   94  76  88  75 /  30  30  40  40

.PHI...
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ZONE DEZ001.

MD...NONE.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ZONES
NJZ015...NJZ017>019.

PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ZONES
PAZ067>071.

EBERWINE

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ001-007>010-015>019-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-
160000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1015 AM EDT THU AUG 15 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...EXTREME NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NORTHERN
DELAWARE AND WESTERN NEW JERSEY...

CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.
ALTHOUGH NOT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS...THOSE THAT DO FORM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/PHI IN SMALL LETTERS.

MIKETTA