Damaging Wind in New Jersey, April 19, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
315 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2002

FIRST LINE OF CONVTN PASSED THRU NRN COUNTIES WITHOUT MUCH ADO...
HOWEVER WE/RE STILL QUITE UNSTABLE AND MOIST AND THE NEXT LINE HAS
FORMED IN CNTRL PA AND IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR SO WL CONT WITH THE
CHC RW/TRW INTO THE EVENING AS FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SE ALONG WITH
UPPER DYNAMICS...AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WL LIKELY FACTOR IN AS
WELL. MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS IN BRINGING THE
FRONT INTO OUR SRN ZONES LATE TNGT...SO WL CONT WITH CHC RW/TRW INTO
THE EVENING/TIL ARND MIDNITE AND THEN JUST CHC RW SRN AREAS OVRNGT.
THEN...ETA AND AVN ARE MORE IN LINE THAN YDA AND WITH FNT JUST ON
OUR SRN DOORSTEP IF NOT IN OUR SRN AREA...WL GO MORE PESSIMISTIC
WITH CLDS AND A 50 POP FOR SHWRS CNTRL AND S...AND EVEN A CHC OF A
TSTM S. CNTRL AREAS ARE PROGGED TO BE MORE STABLE. JUST A 30 POP
LEHIGH AND PARTS OF NWRN NJ...NOTHING FAR N. AS WAVE EXITS EWD WL GO
POPLESS SAT NITE...THEN ANOTHER WAVE SUN. WL HAVE RAIN CHANCES ALL
BUT NRN THIRD...WITH COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW SUN NITE AND MON.

NO GENL AGREEMENT ALL PERIODS AMONG FWC/S FAN/S AND MAV/S...BUT WENT
A BIT COLDER THAN FWC/S WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLDS PRECIP AND A
NLY FLO SAT AND SUN.

NOTHING UP ON THE MARINE...MORE ACTION POSSIBLE IN THE EXTDD PD.

FCSTID = 17
MPO   52  63  36  52 /  30  20  10  20
ABE   55  69  41  57 /  30  30  10  20
RDG   56  70  42  58 /  30  30  10  30
PHL   60  72  46  61 /  30  50  10  30
12N   54  66  40  55 /  30  20  10  20
SMQ   58  71  44  59 /  30  30  10  20
TTN   59  71  45  60 /  30  50  10  30
MIV   59  70  43  60 /  30  50  10  30
ACY   57  67  45  58 /  30  50  10  30
ILG   60  71  45  61 /  30  50  10  30
DOV   60  71  45  60 /  30  50  10  30
GED   61  72  45  60 /  30  50  10  30
ESN   61  71  45  60 /  30  50  10  30

.PHI...
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.