Hail and Damaging Wind in Nebraska, August 9, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
245 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2002

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES...CHC PRECIP TNGT INTO SAT AM...CHC PRECIP
MON AND LATE IN THE EXTENDED ON FRI...TEMPS DURING THE PD.

SYNOPSIS...WEAK SFC BOUNDRY EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA AT 18Z FROM ERN
SD ACROSS N CNTRL NE TO AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ARND LBF.  NO ACTIVITY
ALONG THIS BOUNDRY AT THIS TIME WITH CONVECTION LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
SD AND SWRN KS. EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION
HAS LINGERED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN.
UPPER LOW WAS OVER NERN CORNER OF MT WITH TROF EXTENDING SW ACROSS
WY.

ALTHOUGH MODELS SIMILAR IN HANDLING OF THE UPPER SYSTEM IN TAKING IT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION INTO THE WRN GTLKS THRU
SATURDAY...DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN SURFACE FEATURES WITH NONE OF THE
MODELS VERY GENEROUS WITH PRECIP FOR THE AREA TONIGHT.  NONETHELESS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME POPS FOR TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SFC FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH.  MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
IS FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE CWA TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST
WITH MID LEVEL TROF. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLING WITH THIS SYSTEM
FOR SATURDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED.  WARMING RETURNS ON
SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM WHICH MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
ACROSS IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW SINCE EXTENDED
MODELS HAVE THERE DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF MEAN TROF OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. AND TIMING OF SURFACE FRONT...REMAINDER UNCHANGED.

.OMA...NONE
FOBERT

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-101100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
500 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
NEEDED TONIGHT IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...AHEAD OF
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS
ONLY SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
PROFILES WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE.  ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.  LOCATIONS MAINLY WEST
OF A COLUMBUS TO HARTINGTON WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
EXPERIENCING ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATIC
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/OAX OR AT WEATHER.GOV (LOWER CASE).

MEAD