Hail and Damaging Winds in Nebraska, August 11, 2002

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
332 PM CDT SUN AUG 11 2002

POPS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST CONCERNS.

STRONG AUGUST UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD NORTHEAST MONTANA AND
INTENSIFYING AS PROGGED. FRONT AND SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BEND INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA FIRE CONVECTION THERE...AND ISOLATED STORMS
TRYING TO GO NEAR VALENTINE. MID LEVEL WINDS FIELDS WEAKEN AS WE
MOVE SOUTH...BUT ATMOSPHERE IS JUICY WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS
PREVALENT. BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION SEEM
TO BE EARLY EVENING FOCUS...WITH BEST SHOT WESTERN ZONES AS STORMS
DRIFT EAST THIS EVENING FROM PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ACTION SHOULD FIRE
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...AND FRONT...LLJ AND UPPER WAVE TEAM TO
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
CWFA. HAVE INCLUDED HIGHER POPS THERE...AS OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE
OF SOME INTEREST FOR BOTH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. OF NOTE IS FORECAST
OF AREA OF DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW OVER EASTERN CWFA BY 06Z...
POSSIBLY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATE HEAVY
RAINS.

MONDAY IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT AS FRONT BISECTS REGION. HAVE INCLUDED
POPS ALL BUT WESTERN 5 ZONES. LINGERING LLJ AND FROPA WILL LEAD TO
ONGOING CONVECTION AT SUNRISE NORTHEAST/EAST ZONES...AND AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWFA...SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL HAVE A CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY WIDELY...GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE
NORTHWEST CWFA TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST. AVN/NGM/ETA ALMOST UNIFORM IN
PLACING SURFACE FRONT FROM BEATRICE TO BELOIT BY 21Z...AND DO EXPECT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO REFIRE ALONG IT. KEPT THE CONTINUE SHOT OF
STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FAR SOUTHEAST.

AM BANKING ON AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH PASSAGE OF
H5 TROUGH DOESNT SLIP THROUGH UNTIL LATE. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
LOWER 80S...AND HAVE HELD AS SUCH...BUT GUIDANCE ALL SUGGESTS COOLER
70S MORE LIKELY...WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY WANT TO
ADJUST TO MORE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES.

THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS STILL BRING FRONTS THE AREA WITH VARYING
DEGREES OF SUCCESS. EC AND CANADIAN ARE QUITE BOLD IN FROPA FOR THE
DAY 4 TIME FRAME...AVN JUST A GLANCING BLOW. ALL GENERALLY ADVERTISE
STRONG FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLY A ROUND OF RAINFALL. FOR
NOW CONTINUITY IS BEST UNTIL A BETTER HANDLE ON THINGS CAN BE HAD. NO
MAJOR CHANGES.

.GID...NONE.

MORITZ

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-121200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
518 PM CDT SUN AUG 11 2002

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM YORK TO SMITH CENTER AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON
TO GREELEY.  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT
FORM IN THESE AREAS.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT AS A POTENT
COLD FRONT SURGES TOWARD CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FIRE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY RAPIDLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF
A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY TO SAINT PAUL.

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