Heavy Snow in Montana, May 8, 2002

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
209 AM MDT WED MAY 8 2002

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY...THU...FRI...
MODELS IN OK AGREEMENT. DRY SLOT WORKING INTO ZONES ATTM...WITH PRECIP
DECREASING PER OBS AND 88D IMAGERY. UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
MONTANA TODAY AND EXIT STATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME WRAP AROUND
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS AS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS...BUT HEAVY PRECIP POTENTIAL
COMING TO AN END AFTER 12Z. WILL LET ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS EXPIRE.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE THIS EVENING BEFORE SOME CLEARING IN THE
WEST LATE. RECORD LOWS IN JEOPARDY MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND WILL
HIGHLITE THIS PACKAGE.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO ZONES THURSDAY WITH WARMING INTO THE 50S
LIKELY AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS KICK IN.

NEXT SYSTEM ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS PLACING SYSTEM A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEFORMATION ZONE LOOKS TO
SET UP BRIEFLY ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL TREND POPS
UPWARD FOR THESE ZONES. SCARLETT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES INTO UTAH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY MOVING A TROF
OVER MONTANA WHICH LINGERS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM STAY WELL
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BUT ENOUGH AVAILABLE FOR SCATTERED POPS
ESPECIALLY WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY. AS SYSTEM SLOWLY
PULLS EAST ON SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN CLEARING OUT ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION. A BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPING OFF THE WEST COAST SLOWLY
MOVES OVER MONTANA MONDAY WARMING TEMPS NICELY...WITH 850 TEMPS OF 17C
ON MONDAY AND 21C ON TUESDAY. THESE TEMPS WOULD MIX DOWN TO THE LOWER
80S AT THE SURFACE SO SOME ADJUSTMENT BY DAY SHIFT MAY BE NEEDED FOR
TEMPS THESE DAYS. RIDGE WILL ALSO MOVE JET STREAM WELL TO THE NORTH OF
MONTANA KEEPING SYSTEMS TO OUR NORTH FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
CHAMBERS

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040 028/053 032/055 040/060 041/064 044/065 040/063
    4/J 20/B    03/W    33/W    00/B    02/B    02/B
LVM 039 024/050 030/050 038/058 040/063 043/064 039/060
    6/J 20/B    04/W    33/W    00/B    02/B    22/B
HDN 042 026/055 032/057 042/063 043/066 044/065 041/065
    4/J 20/B    03/W    33/W    00/B    02/B    02/B
MLS 038 026/053 034/057 042/060 040/062 046/064 045/066
    7/S 40/B    02/W    33/W    00/B    02/B    02/B
4BQ 039 028/055 034/056 041/061 040/063 042/064 040/067
    6/J 40/B    03/W    33/W    00/B    02/B    02/B
BHK 037 025/052 032/054 042/062 042/060 048/062 046/065
    7/S 40/B    02/W    33/W    00/B    02/B    02/B
SHR 042 022/052 028/052 039/064 040/066 045/067 043/061
    4/J 30/B    04/W    33/W    00/B    02/B    02/B

.BYZ...NONE.