Damaging Wind in Montana, July 16, 2002

Name: Damaging Wind in Montana, July 16, 2002
Start: 2002-07-16T17:20
End: 2002-07-16T17:20
Location: Montana

July 16, 2002 · NWS TFX · 1 event in 1 county or zone

1 thunderstorm wind, as filed by the National Weather Service.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 2:00 PM MST, 3 hours 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 16, 2:00 PM MST, 3 hours 20 minutes before

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
300 PM MDT TUE JUL 16 2002

.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER EVENING OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IS IN STORE
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MY CWA. SPC HAS DOWNGRADED THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA FOR THE STATE...BUT STILL EXPECTS ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHT MAY BE A BIT HIGH...
WITH WIND SHEAR REMAINING RELATIVELY WEAK...SO ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT SEEMS TO BE A CORRECT ASSESSMENT. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S. HOWEVER...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER WESTERN MONTANA. BELIEVE THIS RIDGE...AND LACK OF ANY
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OVER MY CWA...WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. HAVE BROAD-BRUSHED ISOLATED POPS FOR MY ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THE AVN BEGINS TO MOVE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NW...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING WESTERN MT BY AFTERNOON. WILL INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR WESTERN HALF OF MY CWA...BUT KEEP ISOLATED POPS IN THE
EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. COULD
SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE CWA...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS
BACK OFF ON THIS TREND IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. MPJ

.EXTENDED...ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND AVN DURING THE PERIOD. LIKE FOR MON THE 00Z AVN RUN HAS AN UPPER
TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WRN CAN WITH ITS SRN PORTION AFFECTING AT
LEAST THE NRN ZONES. HOWEVER THE 00Z TUE RUN OF THE AVN IS NOT AS
STRONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE 12Z TUE RUN OF THE AVN DOES
NOT EVEN HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
FORECASTING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S. DURING THE PERIOD. 12Z
TUE RUN OF THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKE THE ECMWF. NCEP FAVORS
A BLEND OF THE AVN/ECMWF SOLUTIONS BUT STILL PREFER A SOLUTION MORE
LIKE THE ECMWF. WILL GO WITH THE AVN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED AND WILL GO WITH CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT. FOR SUN THROUGH MON UPPER RIDGE AXIS COULD BE UPSTREAM OF
AREA WHICH WOULD TEND TO KEEP AREA DRY. HARD TO SAY WHAT GENERAL
PATTERN WILL BE FOR TUE MUCH LESS WHAT THE DETAILS WILL BE. WILL
LEAN TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BLANK

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF BB 063/094 061/095 058 14412
    BBBBB 088/056 086/055 088/056 090/056 090 22322111112
CTB BB 059/092 058/091 055 14112
    BBBBB 085/052 083/052 084/052 087/052 087 22221111112
HLN BB 062/094 060/095 058 14423
    BBBBB 088/057 088/056 089/057 090/057 090 22332111222
BZN BB 058/091 055/091 053 14622
    BEBBB 087/055 086/052 086/053 088/053 088 22333111222
WEY BB 051/088 050/087 048 14622
    BEBBB 082/045 080/043 080/044 082/044 082 22333111222
DLN BB 057/090 055/089 054 14522
    BBBBB 086/053 085/051 086/052 087/052 087 22332111222
HVR BB 064/096 063/096 059 14512
    BBBBB 090/059 088/056 089/056 091/056 091 22222111112
LWT BB 061/089 059/090 056 14622
    BEBBB 087/055 085/054 086/055 088/055 088 22233111112=

.TFX...NONE

The radar

The Billings radar (KBLX), 166 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:22 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.

Thunderstorm Wind, Fergus

When: July 16, 5:20 PM MST
Where: Fergus County, Roy
Measured: 59 kt (68 mph)
Reported by: TRAINED SPOTTER
Coordinates: 47.333, -108.933

A severe thunderstorm produced a wind gust of 68 mph at Roy 18E.

What these are

Thunderstorm Wind: Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Montana in 2002 Every state in 2002 This day in weather history Warnings in Montana, July 2002

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5307347.