Hail in Missouri, August 16, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
410 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2002

410 AM...

FRONT JUST SOUTH OF A STJ TO IRK LINE CONTINUING TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FRONT TO DISSIPATE IN RESPONSE TO
PRESSURE FALLS IN LEE OF ROCKIES AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES
RAPIDLY EAST INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF COUNTY WARNING AREA TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING.

NEXT CONCERN IS SPEED OF NEXT FRONT AND THREAT OF CONVECTION ALONG
FRONT. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DRIVING FRONT INTO EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI BY DAYBREAK AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN ZONES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG FRONT IN
NEBRASKA...IOWA AND KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE LINEAR FORCING
AND SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND -6. STRONG 850MB LOW LEVEL JET OF
40-50 KNOT ALSO TO AID DEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE
CATEGORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO HAVING SOME CONCERN THAT MODELS MAY
STILL HAVE SOME TROUBLE IN TIMING.

SQUALL LINE WOULD LIKELY PROGRESS QUICKLY THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A STILL A THREAT OF
SEVERE...MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS...THE TIMING OF THIS EVENT...WILL
LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND THE SEVERITY. THE INITIAL SQUALL LINE MAY END
UP BEING THE ONLY SHOW AS IT MAY SHUNT MOST MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...WILL HOLD ON TO THE THREAT THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO
UNCERTAINITY. HOWEVER...WILL REMOVE THREAT FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS
EXCEPT FOR THE EVENING HOURS IN THE SOUTH.

OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK OK.

DB

.EAX...
KS...NONE
MO...NONE

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-171100-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2002

* HAZARDS EXPECTED -

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT NORTH OF A
ST JOSEPH TO BETHANY LINE. THE THREAT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF A ST JOSEPH TO BETHANY LINE. THE PRIMARY
THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

* SPOTTER ACTIVATION -
MAY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER EXTREME NORTHWEST
MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS MISSOURI ON SATURDAY. IT WILL
ONCE ENCOUNTER A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A SQUALL LINE WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA TONIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS
MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS
SQUALL LINE MAY BE STRONG TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A FEW
REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

DB