Damaging Winds in Mississippi, July 20, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2002

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES NEXT FEW DAYS.
SATELLITE PIX SHOW UPPER TROF N OF REGION...FORECAST BY MODELS TO
DROP SEWD WITH TIME. MODELS DROP A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY WITH BEST FORCING CENTRAL AND SRN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BUT LOOK A LITTLE FAST COMPARED TO CURRENT SATELLITE.
SHEAR ZONE NOTED NRN ZONES THIS MORNING TO ALSO DROP SWD WITH TIME
TODAY. BEST CAPE AND 850 THETAE RIDGE TO LIE FROM NW AREAS TO SE MS.
MODELS AGREE THAT BEST UVV TO BE ERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BUT
DISAGREE ON N/S PLACEMENT OF MAX. VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
ALSO FOCUS SCATTERED CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS ALL ZONES FOR TODAY.
WILL LEAVE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING FOR
TONIGHT.

UPPER TROF SETTLING OVER SE U.S. SUNDAY WITH SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES PIVOTING ACROSS FORECAST AREA. STRONGER SURFACE TROUGH
ALSO EAST OF AREA WITH TAIL END OF BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO MS. 850
MB TROF PUSHES INTO ERN MS AND WEAK 850 MB THETAE RIDGE TO BE
POSITIONED OVER ERN MS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ETA HINTING AT JET
SUPPORT NRN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK JET MAX NRN MS BORDER
INTO TN. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE TSTMS AGAIN FOR SUN BUT DYNAMICS LOOK
BEST ERN ZONES.

NOT MUCH TO PINPOINT CONVECTION FOR MONDAY. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALL ZONES.

MODELS DISAGREE ON PROGRESSION OF NEXT ORGANIZED FRONT. AVN SHIFTS
BOUNDARY INTO SRN MS BY TUE AFTERNOON WHICH LOOKS TOO AGGRESSIVE.
OTHER MODELS VARY BUT GENERALLY HOLD BOUNDARY EITHER EXTREME NRN MS
OR FARTHER N.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
JAN 94/74/92/74 3333
MEI 94/73/92/73 3343

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
211200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
701 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID
90S...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREAT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING SEVERE
STORMS...WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BELZONI TO MACON
MISSISSIPPI...AND EAST OF A LINE FROM YAZOO CITY TO JACKSON TO
COLUMBIA MISSISSIPPI. THE MOST ACTIVE TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE BETWEEN 1 AND 7 PM. ANY SEVERE STORM WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER...MAY BE NECESSARY THIS
AFTERNOON.

...SEASONAL THREATS...
THE HEAT INDEX WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE MARK
AT MANY LOCATIONS TODAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID 90S OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THOSE TEMPERATURES...AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...WILL PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES AFTER 2 PM TODAY. HEAT INDICES
NEAR 110 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH AND
EAST MISSISSIPPI. PEOPLE INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD
DRINK PLENTY OF LIQUIDS AND AVOID OVER EXERTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.