Tropical Storm in Mississippi, August 4 to 5, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 4 2002

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS LOCATED IN THE COASTAL
WATERS EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER...ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF BILOXI MS. MOVEMENT WAS TOWARDS THE NORTH AT 6 MPH.
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO KEEP THE SAME INTENSITY AND TAKE A
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...MAKING LANDFALL AS A DEPRESSION ON THE
SOUTHEAST LA COAST EAST OF NEW ORLEANS SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING. THE
FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE SYSTEM OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AROUND THE
MIDDAY HOURS ON MONDAY...THEN JUST WEST OF BATON ROUGE BY MIDNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL MODEL TEMPERATURES AND POPS PRIMARILY ON THE
TPC/NHC TRACK AND QPF IN LINE WITH THE HPC QPF FORECASTS. MY
FORECAST POPS WILL BE HIGHER IN THE FIRST 5 FORECAST PERIODS...IN
SOME CASES DOUBLE WHAT THE MODEL OUTPUT IS IN AREAS NEAR THE COAST
TONIGHT...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. QPF THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD SEE THE MOST
RAIN WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2 TO 6 INCH
RANGE. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH RIGHT NOW...BUT WILL
INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN WORDING STARTING IN COASTAL SECTIONS AND SOUTH OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN BY LATE TONIGHT...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND IN MOST ZONES EXCEPT THE MS COAST ON TUESDAY.

EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN BLOWING 20 TO 25 KNOTS MOST OF
THE DAY TODAY IN THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. TIDES WILL
BE RISING...ESPECIALLY AS 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AROUND THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDAL RANGES ARE FROM 1.2 TO 1.8 FEET WHICH IS ON
THE HIGH SIDE...SO THERE SHOULD BE AREAS EXPERIENCING TIDES 2 TO 4
FEET ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY WHERE WATER FUNNELS IN
AROUND HANCOCK COUNTY...THE RIGOLETS...ST BERNARD PARISH...AND THE
EASTERN SHORE OF LOWER PLAQUEMINES PARISH. WILL ISSUE A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH VALID FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS EAST
OF THE MS RIVER AND ALL THE PARISHES SURROUNDING LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN
AND MAUREPAS.

WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH DAY SEVEN AS THE
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET SHOVED WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AND A MASSIVE UPPER HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.

MCB 71/88/72/89/73 37764     BTR 72/87/73/89/73 48874
MSY 75/85/75/89/76 89874     GPT 73/85/74/89/74 89864

.NEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PASCAGOULA TO THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER AND
OUT 60NM INCLUDING LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS.
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH LAZ038-040-050-058-060>064-069-070.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MSZ080>082.

22

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-050930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTION TO WORDING...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
453 PM CDT SUN AUG 4 2002

A NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT TURNING MORE
WESTWARD MONDAY. THE AIRMASS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TONIGHT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST
AND AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A TROPICAL AIRMASS ADVECTING
NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TRAINING OF BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAME AREA WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT RAINS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. EXPECTED RAINS ARE 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS WITH EVEN GREATER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION MOVES INLAND AND CONTINUES TO MOVE AT A
SLOW RATE. LATER SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH NEW UPPER AIR DATA AND
RADAR OBSERVATIONS TONIGHT MAY SUGGEST A NEED FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI. EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN WHEN THESE CONDITIONS DEVELOP A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS POSSIBLE.

RESIDENTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
SLIDELL.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX
(ALL LOWER CASE).