A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms developed across Lower Michigan during the late afternoon ahead of a cold front. Most of the showers that developed ahead of the cold front produced wind speeds between 40 and 50 MPH throughout eastern Michigan.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DTX wrote it up.
A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms developed across Lower Michigan during the late afternoon ahead of a cold front. Most of the showers that developed ahead of the cold front produced wind speeds between 40 and 50 MPH throughout eastern Michigan. An isolated thunderstorm in Washtenaw County, however, produced a couple of severe wind gusts in localized areas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 4, 3:36 PM EST, 1 hour 59 minutes earlier.
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 330 PM FRI OCT 4 2002 TONIGHT...WINDY AND TURNING MUCH COOLER. LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AS IT RACES OFF TO QUEBEC BY MORNING. COLD FRONT PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION AROUND 00Z. WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE/COLD FRONT STILL POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY SHUT OFF EARLY THIS EVENING AS A DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO THE AREA. REAL GOOD COLD ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT (MAXIMIZED AROUND 6Z). BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST WOULD EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO 40 MPH. WILL WORD THE SKY AS MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...HOWEVER THEIR MAY BE A FEW HOURS OF SCATTERED CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY SLOT BEFORE LOW CLOUDS FILL BACK IN. HAVE GONE WITH THE COOLER AVN MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS (AGAIN...BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS). SF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE CWA ON SATURDAY BRINGING CLEARING CONDITIONS...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND DEPARTING LOW. JUST ABOUT ALL OF IA CURRENTLY ENSCONCED IN CLOUDS. NEXT CHALLENGE EVOLVES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL CUTOFF OVER MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY THEN LIFT INTO THE U.P. SUNDAY NIGHT. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE EASTERN U.P. THEN INTO ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. AVN IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN SPINNING UP A WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN CWA AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...WHILE ETA SHOWS BEST LOW LEVEL FGEN DIRECTED TOWARD THE U.P. WITH THE SYSTEM CLOSING OFF AND TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT WOULD PREFER THE SLOWER AND MORE WESTWARD SOLUTION OF THE ETA. THEREFORE WILL HAVE A DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AVN AND ETA IN GOOD AGREEMENT PUSHING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z MONDAY. ETA INDICATES ONLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE AVN MORE ROBUST WITH MOISTURE PROFILE. TYPICALLY ETA HAS BEEN THE MODEL OF CHOICE WHEN IT DEPICTS DRY LOWER LEVELS VS AVN. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ETA...ALTHOUGH CARRY CHANCE SHRA /INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST TSRA NOT LIKELY/ FOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...HIGH CHANCE NORTH...LOW CHANCE SOUTH. ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF WIND COULD ACCOMPANY THIS FROPA AS 925MB WINDS RUNNING AROUND 40 KNOTS ALONG WITH A STRONG BURST OF CAA. IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...PLENTY OF COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE CWA ON MONDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE CWA ON MONDAY NIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF COOL ON MONDAY...POTENTIAL FOR FROST EXISTS ON MONDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WORKING INTO THE CWA ALONG WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT AS HIGH SLIDES TO THE SOUTH. COLDEST TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN THE SOUTH...WHERE CALM WINDS AND CLEARER SKIES TO LAST LONGEST. EXTENDED... NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COUPLE OF SHARP SHORT WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE SECOND APPROACHING FOR LATER ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWING THE SECOND SHORT WAVE THE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A ZONAL PATTERN. WEAK SHORT WAVES EVIDENT IN THE ZONAL FLOW...GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF THE WAVES AND TIMING CONCERNS IN ZONAL FLOW...WILL KEEP THE SECOND HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER /MAINLY JUST A SHADE BELOW/ TO SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. .DTX...GALE WARNING...LAKE HURON...TONIGHT. SF
MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-051200- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 925 AM EDT FRI OCT 4 2002 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN .DAY ONE... AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE LILLI...WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TORNADO. THE BEST TIME FOR THE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 70 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 45 MPH. .SPOTTER ACTIVATION... DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGER IMMEDIATELY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN THE LATEST FORECAST ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX/ (ALL LOWER CASE) SF
The Detroit radar (KDTX), 40 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:36 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Law enforcement reported that two 10 inch diameter tree limbs were blown down onto the road in thunderstorm winds.
Trained spotters reported several trees and power lines blown down in thunderstorm winds.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2002Every state in 2002This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, October 2002
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5320290, 5320291.