Damaging Winds in Michigan, October 4, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1133 AM EDT FRI OCT 4 2002

WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH N LOWER WITH SOUTH WINDS. SE WINDS
ARE STILL IN PLACE OVER E UPPER. WARMER AIR IS STREAMING NORTH INTO
THE REGION AND WILL BOOST TEMEPERTURES IN N LOWER INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S. WILL PROBABLY TWEAK THE FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO READ 70
TO 75. COLD FRONT IS FIRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WISCONSIN
WHICH WILL BE IN THE AREA AROUND 17Z FOR NW LOWER. WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S CAPES (BASED ON MODIFIED
SOUNDING) WILL BE AROUND 1400 J/KG. THE 500 AND 250 MB JET MAXES
WILL BE JUST TO THE WEST ALLOWING FOR THE RRQ OF THE JETS TO HELP
WITH THE UPWARD MOTION ALONG THE FRONT. 850 WINDS ARE ALSO AROUND 40
TO 50 KNOTS. THIS GIVES US A GOOD CHNACE TO SEE DYNAMIC BOW ECHOES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE OTHER CONCERN SEVERE WEATHERWISE IS SUPERCELLS.
THE HODOGRAPHS OF UPSTREAM UPPER OBS SITES HAVE GIVEN BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBERS OF AROUND 12 OR SO WITH STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
OF 500 M2/S2. SO THIS COULD TURN OUT TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY.

PWATS ARE ALSO HIGH WITH THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING AROUND 1.6 INCHES
AND UPSTREAM SITES AROUND 1.9 TO 2 INCHES. WITH THE STRONG 850 WINDS
AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES TRAINING OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL PROBLEMS LATER THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH 6 HR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS HIGH (FROM 3.5 TO 4 INCHES). SO DONT EXPECT
AT THIS TIME TO PUT OUT ANYTHING, BUT IT IS A CONCERN.

SO WILL ZONES BY 1545Z. ANYPLACE WITH SCATTERED WILL BE BUMPED UP TO
CATGORICAL POPS WITH APPROPRIATE TIMING.

.APX...NONE.

LUTZ

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-051000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND
EAST UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GREATEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF THE STRAIT OF MACKINAC
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS ALSO A
RISK FOR TORNADOES WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND EAST
UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.  WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING.

LUTZ

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-042315-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
116 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE UNTIL 715 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
     CHEBOYGAN...PRESQUE ISLE...MONTMORENCY...ALCONA...OSCODA...
     IOSCO...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW...ARENAC...GLADWIN AND ALPENA

IN NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
     ANTRIM...OTSEGO...GRAND TRAVERSE...KALKASKA...CRAWFORD...
     BENZIE...MANISTEE...WEXFORD...MISSAUKEE...CHARLEVOIX...EMMET AND
     LEELANAU

IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
     CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS OF AFFECTED
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-042200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
116 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE UNTIL 715 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
     CHEBOYGAN...PRESQUE ISLE...MONTMORENCY...ALCONA...OSCODA...
     IOSCO...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW...ARENAC...GLADWIN AND ALPENA

IN NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
     ANTRIM...OTSEGO...GRAND TRAVERSE...KALKASKA...CRAWFORD...
     BENZIE...MANISTEE...WEXFORD...MISSAUKEE...CHARLEVOIX...EMMET AND
     LEELANAU

IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
     CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS OF AFFECTED
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.