Damaging Wind in Maryland, August 24, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
145 PM EDT SAT AUG 24 2002

TNGT AND SUN...
ALL MDLS CUTTING BACK ON CHCS OF PCPN TNGT. NGM HAS A PALTRY 10
POP...ETA HIGHEST W/ A WHOPPING 30 POP. STILL AM NOT WILLING TO
DISCOUNT CHC OF TRW THRU ARND MIDNIGHT AS LOW LVL ATMOSPHERE IS
XTMRLY MOIST...AND WE ARE RECEIVING SOME AFTN SUN AHEAD OF THE FNT.
SPEAKING OF THE FNT...APPEARING LIKE JUST A GRADUAL WINDSHIFT W/
RATHER WK DYNAMICS AHEAD OF IT. SPC THOTS ARE A FEW STRONG/ISLD SVR
ARE PSBL...WHICH SEEMS LIKE THE LKLY SCENARIO TO ME...BUT NOT ENUF
TO OUTLOOKED SVR.

BY 06Z ALL MDLS HAVE FNT LEAVING THE CST. XPCTG SCT-BKN CU THRU
SUNDAY...NW WINDS - PSBLY A PD OF 15-20 KT BUT CAA IS RATHER
SHORTLIVED W/ THIS EVENT. TEMPS NEAR/SLGTLY ABV CLIMO AVGS.

WOODY

LONG TERM...SUN NGT THRU NEXT SAT...

UPR LVL TROF OVR THE NE U.S. WILL LIFT OUT SUN NGT AND MON.
HOWEVER...ENERGY OVR THE NW U.S. WILL DROP ESE ALG THE TOP OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORMING A H5 CUTOFF OVR TN/KY MON. THIS UPR LVL
LOW WILL BE TRAPPED BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVR THE SW U.S.
AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE ATLC COAST TUE AND WED THEN
FINALLY DRIFT OFF THE W AND WEAKEN THU AND FRI AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OFF THE ATLC COAST BUILDS WWD INTO THE AREA.

WEAK HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE SUN NGT INTO MON. SFC LOW WILL FORM OVR
TN BY TUE IN RESPONSE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE UPR LVL LOW. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NWD ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPR LVL SYSTEM
DRAGGING A WMFNT NWD THRU THE AREA WED/. FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE N OF
THE AREA THU.

EXPECT M/CLR SKIES SUN NGT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS MON THROUGH
TUE AS HIGH LVL MOISTURE IS DRAWN NWD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. BY LATE TUE THROUGH WED...OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT DVLPS
OVR THE AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE IS DRAWN NWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
AS WMFNT PULLS NWD ACRS THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE RA OVR THE
AREA. GIVEN THAT THIS EVENT IS IN THE EXTENDED PD...PREFER TO KEEP
JUST CHC POPS NOW. HOWEVER...IF THE SITUATION PANS OUT...LATER
SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS.

PCPN WILL BECOME MORE SCT AND CONVECTIVE IN NATURE THU THRU FRI AS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WWD INTO THE AREA AND UPR LVL LOW WEAKENS
AND DRIFTS WWD. WILL LIMIT SCT ACTIVITY TO THE AFT/EVE HOURS THU AND
FRI DUE TO HEATING. CDFNT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT MORNING...LIKELY DRY
SO ONLY 20 POPS ON SAT.

TEMPS STILL WARM MON. A LTL COOLER TUE WITH E FLOW AND EVEN COOLER
FOR WED WITH RA AND E FLOW. WARMER THU AND FRI AS FLOW TURNS S AND
WE SEE MORE SUNSHINE. MAYBE A TAD COOLER SAT BEHIND CDFNT.

WALSTON

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.