Winter Storm in Maine, March 26 to 27, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
255 PM EST TUE MAR 26 2002

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS ALL
OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE TONIGHT...THEN CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN...BEFORE GOING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
SCENARIO FROM THE 12Z MODELS REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS IN
TAKING SURFACE LOW FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MAINE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
H8 LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE MAINE-QUEBEC BORDER WHICH IS SLIGHTLY
FURTHER EAST THAN THE EARLIER RUNS.

AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TREMENDOUS SURGE OF WAA AND INTENSE ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL SUPPORT A RAPID ACCUMULATION OF SNOW FROM INTERIOR DOWNEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT. STRONG MID LEVEL WARMING WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD WHILE COLD AIR DAMMING HOLDS ON TO THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WHICH
WILL BE TOUGH TO SCOUR OUR ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS.
EXPECT A CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN DOWNEAST LATER TONIGHT AND
ACROSS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF SUPPORT ISSUING WINTER STORM
WARNINGS ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN MAINE AND IN ZONE 10 (WESTERN MOUNTAINS)
FOR THE COMBINATION OF A SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICING EVENT. WITH MID/LOW
LEVEL WARMING OCCURRING DOWNEAST EXPECT THE HEAVIEST QPF TO BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN WHICH WILL LIMIT THE ICING IMPACT THUS WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 11/15>17/31/32 FOR TONIGHT.

ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EXPECT ANY FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE
TO RAIN EARLY TONIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
ATTM FOR THESE ZONES (29/30)...HOWEVER WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY AS ALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 60 TO 70 KT LOW LEVEL JET TO AFFECT THESE ZONES
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE SOME
OF THIS WIND TO MIX DOWN WHICH FALLS INTO THE ADVISORY CATEGORY.

AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS NORTHEAST EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED FORECAST...
SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER IN THE
WEEK AND AGAIN LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

COASTAL WATERS...
WILL CONTINUE WITH GALES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THUS GALES LIKELY TO BE REPLACE BY SCAS DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.CAR...WINTER STORM WARNING ZONES 1>6/10 TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING
       WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ZONES 11/15>17/31/32 TONIGHT
       WIND ADVISORY ZONES 29/30 LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING.
       GLW.

FITZSIMMONS