Damaging Wind in Louisiana, July 24, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
200 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2002

MODELS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WITH THE NGM HEAVIEST OF QPF VALUES.  AVN/ETA
MODELS SHOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTH ALONG EASTERN SIDE OF RIDGE AND
DROPPING INTO MISSISSPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE
HASNT SET UP THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD OUTFLOW BOUNDAY VISIBLE ON
VISIBLE IMAGERY MOVING AT 20 TO 25 KT FROM SOUTHWEST LOUISISIANA
TOWARDS LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. ACTIVITY REMAINING BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
BUT THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR A FEW MESOS...OOOPS GOT ONE NOW BUT TOO
ELEVATED TO WORRY ABOUT.
WILL KEP CHANCE OD TRWE IN FOR THIS EVENING AND INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR THURSDAY. AS RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST...ADDITTIONAL SHORT
WAVES ARE AWAITING IN THE WINGS TO DROP INTO THE 850 TROUGH ALONG THE
GULF COAST. DONT SEE ANY CHANGE IN PATTERN TIL THE WEENEND WHEN
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST AND CAPS OFF THE CONVECTION. PRELIMINARY
NUMBERS FOLLOW...WILL SEE IF IFPS SPITS IT OUT CORRECTLY

MCB 72 90 72 91 3634  BTR 73 91 73 91 4624
MSY 76 91 76 91 4634  GPT 75 90 75 90 4634

.NEW...NONE
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-251100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1030 AM CDT WED JUL 24 2002

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR
STATIONARY OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL AGAIN RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SOME OF
THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS.

.ACTIONS...
NONE AT THIS TIME.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX
(ALL LOWER CASE).