Flood in Louisiana, August 17, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
235 AM CDT SAT AUG 17 2002

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CENTERS AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK. RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN
THE CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO SHOW
THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR SHEAR AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE UPPER RIDGES
WERE NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CONUS.
THE 00Z LIX AND SURROUNDING SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT A TROPICAL
AIRMASS REMAINED IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING
AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER.

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF FAIRLY WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING TO NEAR NORMAL OR
SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS...INCLUDING THE ETA SOLUTION NOW...FORECAST SIGNIFICANT DRYING
TO TAKE PLACE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS THE
WEAK UPPER TROUGH OR SHEAR AXIS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WEAKENS AND THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS SOUTHERN U.S.
AS A RESULT.. PLAN TO FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS TODAY AND
ONLY 30 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES READINGS WILL BE RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOLLOW...

MCB 91/73/92/73 4130     BTR 91/73/92/74 4130
MSY 91/76/92/76 4130     GPT 90/77/90/77 3130

.NEW...NONE.
LA...NONE
MS...NONE

11

GMZ530-550-555-570-575-LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-
080>082-181100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1120 AM CDT SAT AUG 17 2002

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS...OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI...WILL AGAIN RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
IN ADDITION TO OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

.ACTIONS...
NONE.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX
(ALL LOWER CASE)