Hail in Kentucky, March 29, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
345 PM EST FRI MAR 29 2002

---AFTERNOON UPDATE---

HAVE DONE MAJOR RE-POPULATION OF THE GRIDS. GENERALLY HAVE GONE WITH
ETA/MESOETA IN THE NEAR TERM. AVN BEYOND 60 HOURS. BLEND OF MRF AND
CURRENT GRIDS IN DAYS 5-6-7.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND NEWLY ISSUED WATCH WILL BE INCORPORATED
INTO ZONES.

HAVE FOLLOWED THE ISC GRIDDS CLOSELY.

ZONES OUT SHORTLY.

PRELIMINARY CCF...
LOZ BW 052/063 046/056 035 02+00
    BBCEU 048/044 059/043 043/027 037/033 058 60000022000
JKL BE 052/064 045/057 033 02800
    BBCEU 046/043 060/044 045/028 037/033 057 30000032000

.JKL...TORNADO WATCH THROUGH 300200Z WESTERN HALF OF CWA.

&&
LEWIS

---MORNING UPDATE FOLLOWS---

WILL UPDATE FOR SKY CONDITION AND TEMPERATURE TODAY. WE HAVE FEWER
CLOUDS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND THE SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ARE PUSHING TEMPERATURES UP MORE QUICKLY THAN FORECAST.
WILL GO FOR INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND MID 70S. WILL ADD
LATE WORDING FOR PRECIP...SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE CAPPED FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL ALSO ADD SOME TIMING FOR PRECIP TONIGHT IN THE
WESTERN GROUP (IN THE EVENING) AND WILL ADD WORDING FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY TONIGHT. WILL ALSO ADJUST SATURDAY TO FEWER
CLOUDS AND MORE LIMITED TIMING ON PRECIP CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...BRINGING US MORE IN LINE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND
THE LATEST MESOETA. PERTINENT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

06Z SFC CHART HAS A LOW PRESS AREA OVER SOUTHWESTERN KS WITH A WARM
FRONT ACROSS CNTRL MO SOUTHERN IL TO SOUTHEASTERN KY. OVER RUNNING
HAS CREATED SOME -RA FOR OUR CWFA TONIGHT BUT NOT MUCH TO MEASURE.
85H LOCATES THAT SAME WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWFA WITH
DECENT TEMP CONTRAST FROM S TO N.

IN THE MODELS...AGREE WITH HPC AS THE AVN REMAINS THE MOST
CONSISTENT MODEL WITH THE SHORT RANGE ETA FALLING IN LINE. BOTH
MODELS SEEM TO PUSH THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SW TOO FAST TO THE
EAST AND THIS FOLLOWS THE SLOWER UKMET...ECMWF AND CANADIAN...ALL OF
WHICH TREND SLOWER STILL THAN THE AVN. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW AVN BUT
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH HVY PCPN TONIGHT AND FOR A BRIEFER PERIOD. PCPN
AMOUNTS WILL RANGE AROUND 1 INCH (MORE OR LESS) FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA.

AVN NOW KEEPING THE BETTER PCPN TO OUR SOUTH FOR SUN/MON AND WILL
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. LOOKS LIKE PERIODS OF REALLY NICE WX IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS AND WARM LATE MAR SUN IS MODIFYING THE AIRMASS FAST ENUFF
THAT WE SHOULD BE SPARED THE REALLY COLD WX. BETTER SHOT OF COLD AIR
FOLLOWS FOR MON MORN AND THEN WARMS NICELY UNTIL NEXT SYSTEM ON WED.

AFTER CHAT WITH RLX...RNK...GSP WILL KEEP FCST CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
WITH BEST RAINFALL TONIGHT AND LESSOR BUT SECONDARY MAX SUN
NIGHT...ESF CONTINUES...FOR HEAVY RAIN THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT.

.JKL...NONE.

HAL/DUSTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, KY
614 PM EST FRI MAR 29 2002

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0605 PM    IRVINE                    KY   .75 INCH HAIL
03/29/02   ESTILL                         REPORTED BY SPOTTER.