Kentucky, 2002

Flash Flood in Kentucky, July 20, 2002

July 20, 2002 · NWS JKL · 1 event in 1 county or zone

1 flash flood, as filed by the National Weather Service.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 20, 2:20 AM EST, 7 hours 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 20, 2:20 AM EST, 7 hours 10 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
320 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2002

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD
AND OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A SLOWLY SINKING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONNECTS
THESE TWO CURRENTLY LYING JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...HOWEVER...
YOU HAVE TO GO UP INTO MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO SEE
DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...LIKEWISE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

THE MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT ALOFT FINALLY SHIFTING THE PESKY
UPPER LOW EAST TODAY AS THE WESTERLIES PUSH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH OFF
SHORE. WEAK RIDGING THEN MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE IT TOO
SUCCUMBS TO THE NEXT RIPPLE IN THE JET STREAM MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST BY MIDWEEK WHILE
STRONG RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE WEAK FRONT WILL PRESS SOUTH TODAY INTO A
JUICY AIR MASS THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER...AT THE TIME OF
PEAK HEATING THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRIER COLUMN OF AIR
WITH PWS DROPPING BELOW 1.5 INCHES. WILL NOT LIMIT THE CHANCES TO
THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH WILL PLACE LOWER POPS NORTH FOR THE WHOLE
DAY. DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND A DEVELOPING MID LEVEL CAP WILL KEEP
POPS IN CHECK THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES. BY
THAT TIME...TUESDAY...WE WILL HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REMOISTEN AND AT
LEAST CHANCE POPS LOOK IN ORDER. WILL NOT BITE ON THE CLEAN FROPA
PORTRAYED IN THE AVN FOR MIDWEEK...YET. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES THANKS TO DRIER AIR AND FEWER CLOUDS
MORE NORMAL READINGS FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

NGM AND AVN MOS ARE SIMILAR WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES. WILL USE A
BLEND. ON POPS...PREFER THE WETTER AVN FOR TODAY WITH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND DRY.

AS FOR GFE/IFPS: STANDARD LOAD OF MESOETA TEMPS/WINDS THROUGH 60
HOURS THEN TWEAKING OF THE REST...DRIER/CLEARER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THAN PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

WORK ZONES AVAILABLE BEFORE TOO LONG UNDER THE AFOS PRODUCT
SDFOZFJKL.

PRELIMINARY CCF:
LOZ EB 085/067 090/068 090 311-2
JKL EB 084/069 090/070 090 4---1

.JKL...NONE.

GREIF

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:
===================================================================

930 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2002

...FORECAST ISSUES...
CONTINUE TO HAVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF OUTFLOW
FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION IN OHIO. THIS HANDLED WELL BY THE MESO ETA.
TOO MANY BOUNDARIES TO RULE OUT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

FEEL THAT THE CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. FOR NOW WILL NOT PLAN ON
UPDATE TO THE FORECAST.

.JKL...NONE.
LEWIS
===================================================================

232 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2002

...FORECAST ISSUES...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EARLY PART OF THE SHORT TERM (TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY) AND ITS EFFECTS ON TEMPS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
ALSO PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY ARE IN QUESTION AS WELL.

...MODELS/ZFP...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT
TERM.  MODELS NOW COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.  FORECAST
CONCERNS RIGHT NOW ARE RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING AND FOR SATURDAY.
HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON AND IT LOOKS LIKE MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING.  INITIALLY THOUGHT ABOUT A 40 POP ACROSS THE
BOARD...BUT NOW PLANNING ON GOING WITH 40 POPS NORTH AND 30 POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH.  WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE RADAR AND IF THINGS START
TO FILL IN WILL ADJUST POPS UPWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH.

FOR SATURDAY...PLAN ON JUST INVERTING POPS (40 SOUTH AND 30 NORTH)
AS BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.  SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING SAT NIGHT AND THEN A PARTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM DAY FOR
SUNDAY.  FWC/MAV/MEX GUIDANCE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS GO
AROUND.  AT THIS TIME...PLAN ON STAYING CLOSER TO MAV NUMBERS...BUT
A MAV/FWC BLEND WILL BE USED TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

...EXTENDED...
AGAIN NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED.  NEW 00Z RUN FROM THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT OVER THE WEST.  SEVERAL H5 WAVES
ARE FORECAST TO SCOOT ALONG IN THE MEAN FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF EACH INDIVIDUAL WAVE IS IN QUESTION.
AT THE SURFACE...WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SETTLE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.  BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF
KY BY THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY.  THE COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASSING BY WILL LIKELY YIELD A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.  NO BIG
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAYS RUN.  TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE CLOUDS AND RAIN
WITH SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA.  TEMPS THEN LOOK TO
MODERATE TOWARDS WEEKS END.

...IFPS/GRIDS...
DATABASE IN GOOD SHAPE.  DID THE USUAL RELOAD OF ONE HOUR T/TD,
WINDS FROM THE MESO ETA.  ONLY MINOR TWEAKS DONE TO EXISTING
DATABASE TO REFLECT ABOVE THOUGHTS AND UPCOMING FORECAST.

...PRELIM NUMBERS...
LOZ 68/85 67/89 3412
JKL 67/84 68/89 4311

.JKL...NONE

JARVIS

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flash Flood, Magoffin

When
July 20, 9:30 AM EST to 11:00 AM EST
Where
Magoffin County, Hendricks
Reported by
LAW ENFORCEMENT
Coordinates
37.707, -83.065 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A couple of driveway bridges were washed out along Bear Branch Creek near Kentucky Highway 30 and Kentucky Highway 1090. Also, two feet of water was flowing over Kentucky Highway 30, one mile south of Kentucky Highway 460.

What these are

Flash Flood
Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Kentucky in 2002Every state in 2002This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2002

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5312298.