Damaging Wind in Kentucky, July 10, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
142 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2002

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW LONG SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND AND/OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE WAS NEAR A KCGI-KPAH-KHOP LINE AS OF
17Z AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 25 KTS. SCT TSRA WERE FORMING ALONG
AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
CONTINUING THE PUSH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND INTO AR/TN
OVERNIGHT. ALSO AT 17Z...A SURFACE TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO IOWA AND
MINNESOTA. MCSS WERE POSITIONED JUST IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE OVER
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND CENTRAL IOWA. SHRA/TSRA CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT
ARE TWO FOLD. FIRST CONVECTION ALONG THE SLOWLY EXITING COLD FRONT.
SECOND SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MCSS
TO OUR NORTHWEST. GIVEN THIS...WILL UP SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE LEAST CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST. WILL INCLUDE
WORDING FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE DAMAGING WIND CONCERN
FROM COLLAPSING STORMS.

SHRA/TSRA POSSIBILITIES LOOK TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE THROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE CHANCES LOOK
BEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE EVENING/OVERNIGHT MCS
PASSAGES ARE SUGGESTED BY THE ETA. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY TODAY/S
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO GET DRAW BACK NORTH ACROSS THE FA IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW/TROUGH. THIS WILL HELP BOOST POPS AGAIN
OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. SATURDAY...THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD.

JUST HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA PAST
SATURDAY IS THE BIG QUESTION. THE LATEST RUN OF THE AVN PINCHES OFF
THE TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW AND DRIFTS IT SOUTHWEST OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...THE AREA WILL BE
POSITIONED IN THE WARM SECTOR AND CONTINUE TO HAVE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA.
THE 10/00Z RUN OF THE CANADIAN SOLUTION FAVORS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
OPEN WAVE AND HAS THE AREA RAIN-FREE BY SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR NOW I/LL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND ADD A SMALL CHANCE MENTION OF
SHRA/TSRA ON SUNDAY AND ADD SOME MORE CLOUDS TO MONDAY/S FORECAST.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WILL GO WITH NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER WORDING TO REFLECT DIURNAL CU.

.PAH...NONE.

SLEIGHTER

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
825 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2002

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

HAZARDS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE AREA...FOR MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THESE
WEATHER FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE...TO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A THREAT FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH THE MAIN THREATS STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUESTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
141 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2002

...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...

THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...SCATTERED STRONG...TO AT TIMES SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CARBONDALE ILLINOIS TO MADISONVILLE
KENTUCKY THROUGH 400 PM. HOWEVER...MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI NEAR ST. LOUIS WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION.

STRONG WIND GUSTS...HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
STATEMENTS...AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.