Hail in Kansas, September 18, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
320 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2002

DAYS 1-2...
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE PRECIP TIMING AND AMOUNTS FOR TOMORROW.
CURRENT WV LOOP SHOWS THE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER 4 CORNERS
REGION.  MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATED 140KT JET STREAK KNIFING
DOWN STRAIGHT SOUTH FROM WESTERN ALBERTA TO OREGON/IDAHO.  IT
APPEARS AS IF SOME OF THIS JET ENERGY IS BEGINNING TO CARVE OUT THE
DEEP MIDDLE TROP SYSTEM ATTM WITH CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING AHD OF
THIS IN SOUTHERN CO AND NM.  AT THE SFC, FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 992
LOW OVER SD/ND BORDER DOWN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS.  MOST OF MY CWA IS
BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, SO SVRWX APPEARS TO BE A NULL RISK.

ETA MODEL HAS DONE A GOOD JOB IN RECENT RUNS GRABBING ONTO THE
CURRENT SCENARIO AND BELIEVE IT HAS A FAIRLY DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS
FOR THIS PERIOD.  AS THE 500MB VORT MAX CARVES INTO A DEEP,
SIGNIFICANT EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE, ALL OF SOUTHWEST KS WILL MOISTEN
UP RAPIDLY AS DEEP LIFT APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT.  SIGNIFICANT,
STEADY RAINFALL SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH HOWLING NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH PLUS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE MID 50S AREAWIDE EXCEPT P28 CLOSER TO THE FRONT.  WITH
SIGNIFICANT UPWARD VVS AND NEAR CONTINUOUS STEADY RAINFALL, HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL GO NOWHERE AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEADY OR EVEN
FALLING SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY.  STEADY STRATIFORM PRECIP FIELD
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE CWA THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT BEFORE LETTING UP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WEST AND FRIDAY MORNING
IN THE EASTERN ZONES.

THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A MUCH BETTER DAY
IN STORE.  WINDS WILL ALSO TAME SIGNIFICANTLY AND BECOME MORE
WESTERLY ALLOWING FOR A NICE WARMUP INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S.

DAYS 3-7...
MID/UPPER TROP FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO MAKE MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CLASSIC GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE WITH
DOWNSTREAM HUDSON BAY LOW WILL HELP TO USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR THE
CWA HAS EXPERIENCED FOR SEVERAL MONTHS. ALL EXTENDED MODELS AND
THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
FLOW REGIME APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLE SOLUTION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER TROFFING OBSERVED OVER 170W (PER WATER VAPOR LOOP) SUPPORTS
THE IDEA OF PUMPING UP THE ALASKA RIDGE AS WELL. HAVING SAID THIS
AND READING PREVIOUS SHIFTS THOUGHTS ON THE MATTER, WILL PLAN TO
LOWER TEMP FORECAST FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD TO GO
WELL BELOW CLIMO NORMS. OTHER THAN THIS, WILL PLAN TO LEAVE REST OF
THE DAY 3 THROUGH 7 UNTOUCHED.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   54  54  48  76 /  70  80  60   0
GCK   52  52  46  76 /  70  80  60   0
EHA   51  51  46  77 /  20  80  40   0
LBL   53  53  47  77 /  70  80  60   0
HYS   53  53  47  75 /  70  80  60   0
P28   61  61  51  77 /  80 100  80  30

.DDC...NONE.

FCSTID = UMSCHEID/16/15