Hail in Kansas, May 6, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
228 PM MDT MON MAY 6 2002

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND MAXES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

SATL SHOWING BLOCKY/AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS BREAKING DOWN OVER THE
PACIFIC. UPR FEATURES ARE STARTING TO MOVE WEST TO EAST INSTEAD OF
NORTH TO SOUTH. LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY STRONG SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH BUT SATL/UPR AIR
ANALYSIS HAVE DRY AIR OVER AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. 850
MB/SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED WEST TO EAST FRONT DRAPED FROM CENTRAL WY
INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THE AVN TENDED TO
DO BETTER THAN THE ETA. WILL BLEND ETA/AVN FOR THIS PACKAGE.

AT LOW LEVELS...MODELS INITIALLY UNDERDID STRENGTH OF SFC LOW OVR
CENTRAL BUT CAUGHT UP BY 18Z. ETA/AVN INITIALIZED THE BEST AT THE
SURFACE WITH AVN BETTER IN THE PLAINS AND ETA SLIGHTLY BETTER OUT
WEST. ALL MODELS WERE UNDERDOING DEWPOINTS OVER ERN PTN OF CWFA. AT
850...MODELS INITIALIZED TOO COOL ALMOST EVERYPLACE EXCEPT TOO WARM
BEHIND FRONT TO THE NORTH. BY DEFAULT THE AVN LOOK TO DO THE BEST.
WILL BLEND ETA/AVN FOR THIS PACKAGE.

FOR TON/TUE...LFQ OF JET IS NEAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWFA THROUGH
06Z. SOME MID LEVEL MSTR MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT BUT NOT AS MUCH AS
LAST NIGHT. DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVES BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. DECENT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWFA TONIGHT WITH THE BEST IN THE SE
PORTION. BUT HAVE DECENT CAP DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT. WILL GO
SLIGHT CHC EVERY PLACE TONIGHT.

ETA KAIN-FRITSCH DEVELOPS CONVECTION ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. DISTINCT CLEARING
LINE/DRY LINE DEVELOPS ALONG SRN AND WRN PORTIONS OF CWFA. HOWEVER...
THERE IS LITTLE DYNAMICS ALOFT. LITTLE TO NO CAP LEFT IN SRN PTN OF
CWFA BY 00Z. WILL PUT SLGT CHANCE TO CHANCE IN SRN HALF. WILL GO
NEAR TO ABOVE DUE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER FOR MINS AND
BLO FOR MAXES FOR SAME REASON.

FOR TUE NIGHT/WED...INSTABILITY RETURNS DURNING THE DAY WITH
LITTLE TO CAP ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WILL
HAVE PRECIPITATION IN HERE WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE NIGHT. WILL
UNDERCUT MAXES DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND CAA.

FOR WED NIGHT/THU...LFQ MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE
NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE COUPLED JET STRUCTURE CLOSE TO AREA AS WELL.
JET REMAINS OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF CWFA THROUGH THE DAY. A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES PLUS CAA ALOFT MOVE IN AS WELL. GOOD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN DURING THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE WITH NARROW
DIURNAL RANGE ON TEMPS.

IN THE EXTENDED...ALL MODELS HANDLING FEATURES WELL AS OF 12Z THIS
MORNING. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THEIR SOLUTIONS THROUGH EARLY SAT
BEFORE SOME DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP. ALL MODELS TRANSITION
INTO ZONAL FLOW. HOWVER...ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY LATEST UKMET ARE A
LOT MORE AMPLIFIED THAN GFS ON SAT AND SUN. BASED ON CURRENT DATA I
WOULD SAY THAT LESS AMPLIFIED IS BETTER. ALSO TREND FROM PREVIOUS RUN
SHOWS FURTHER NORTH AND MORE ZONAL WITH FLOW AND FEATURES.

GIVEN THAT IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST WESTERLIES STAY OVER OR JUST
NORTH OF CWFA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
ACTIVE WEATHER WITH SYSTEMS ZIPPING THROUGH AND HAVING BOUNDERIES
STALLED OUT NEAR TO OVER AREA. PLUS WHATEVER MESOSCALE INFLUENCES
CONVECTION HAS ON THE SITUATION. THIS MAKES THIS TIME PERIOD VERY
PROBLEMATIC. THE ONE DAY THAT DEFINITELY LOOKS DRY IS NEXT MONDAY...
AND WILL MAKE THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WET.

.GLD...NONE.

BULLER