Hail in Kansas, May 22, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
257 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2002

DAYS 1-2...

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES ALL
PERIODS.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MIGRATE NORTHEAST WITH GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. MID LEVEL COOL PUNCH WAS MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH COLORADO BUT 700MB TEMP AT DDC WAS STILL 10C AT 12Z. 850MB
MOISTURE WAS RESPECTABLE IN THE PLAINS WITH 5-12C DEWPOINTS COMMON.
VERY CHILLY AIR (-14C) WAS WAITING TO COME SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. DRYLINE HAD PUSHED EAST THROUGH DDC AND HYS BUT
BEGINNING TO INCH BACK WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRESSURE FALLS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.

AS MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO COOL THIS AFTERNOON, CAP SHOULD BE NEARLY
ERASED. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. FAST STORM MOTION IN STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD PUSH THEM EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. SURFACE LOW
PUSHING EAST SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME NORTHERLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL ZONES TONIGHT. DECENT MIXING DESPITE THE DRIER
AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S
SOUTHEAST IN THE MOIST AIR AND STRONGER WINDS. WILL NEED TO KEEP
ADVISORY GOING IN THE EASTERN ZONES UNTIL SUNSET AT LEAST.

UPPER LOW FILLS AND EXITS THE PLAINS THURSDAY AS SURFACE LOW
REDEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE FRONT MAY REMAIN IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AND KEEP THEM IN THE MOIST AIR AND WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS HERE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. DESPITE NORTH/EAST FLOW,
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S TO AROUND 80.

NEXT UPPER WAVE ENTERS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE THURSDAY. MAY HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MOUNTAIN CONVECTION.
STRONG MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WOULD SUSTAIN RAINFALL MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN WITHOUT MOUNTAIN STORMS,
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST.
GUIDANCE LOWS SEEM REASONABLE AND HAVENT STRAYED FAR.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES FRIDAY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS AND EVEN BUMP THEM UP A BIT.
EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH LITTLE INSOLATION SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE
LOW 50S TO NEAR 60. WESTERN ZONES MAY BREAK OUT LATE AND WARM A
LITTLE.

DAYS 3-7...

90KT UPPER JET JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WILL DIG SE BEHIND THE MAJOR
UPPER TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. WESTERN KS
WILL BE NORTH OF THE FRONT, SO ANY PRECIP WILL BE ELEVATED AND
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS. THE UKMET IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
AVN, WITH THE ETA BY FAR THE SLOWEST. WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER MODELS
FOR THIS PACKAGE, RESULTING IN A SLOWER WARMUP THAN THE ETA SUGGESTS
ON SATURDAY. IN FACT THE ETA SHOWS +24C 850MB TEMPS SATURDAY WITH
THE AVN/UKMET QUITE A BIT COOLER. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SEEMS
APPROPRIATE AT THIS POINT. NEXT WAVE, WHICH IS CENTERED AT (150W,
30N) THIS MORNING, WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ITS TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
BEFORE EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GOING FCST HAS 20%
POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THIS LOOKS OK FOR NOW.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   57  75  52  56 /  30   0  20  70
GCK   53  75  50  56 /   0   0  40  70
EHA   54  77  50  60 /   0   0  40  70
LBL   57  76  51  56 /   0   0  40  70
HYS   55  73  47  52 /  30   0  10  70
P28   66  80  57  61 /  30  30  20  70

.DDC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 02Z KSZ046-065-066-079>081-089-090.

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