Damaging Wind in Kansas, May 15, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
325 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2002

DAYS 1-2...

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT, AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH PERIOD.

WATER VAPOR LOOP AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL JET
CONTINUING TO RIDE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME EARLY
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED OUT OF NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING AND
INTO OKLAHOMA.  A STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN REGION THIS MORNING WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND HELPING TO INCREASE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
OF THE ROCKIES.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING OVER
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE.  A WEAK COLD FRONT HAD MOVED AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHWEST
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPECT THE EASTERN COLORADO CONVECTION TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
APPROACHES.  MODELS SHOW A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF KANSAS TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR
A POSSIBLE MCS ROLLING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT.
WILL GO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
TONIGHT.  WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
MORNING.  WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS GOING DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.  LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF
TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTION SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH.  WILL
AGAIN GO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS TO COVER.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON SEVERAL THINGS INCLUDING THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.  WILL
NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONTINUE WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.  COLDER AIR MOVES DOWN IN
FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME DRIZZLE DEVELOPING
LATE.  ON FRIDAY EXPECT TO SEE THE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE GET
SHUNTED TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE 50S.

DAYS 3-7...

MODELS SIMILAR AND CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAYS RUN WITH ESTABLISHING
A LARGE SCALE CLOSED MID-UPR LVL TROFS OVR THE ERN US/CAN AND OVR
THE ERN PACIFIC SANDWICHED ARND A W/CNTRL US/CAN RDG. RIDGE PLACED
OVER THE ROCKIES LATE THIS WEEKEND AND WILL SLOWLY ERODE AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AS WELL SO SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE TEMPS START TO RECOVER AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY HOWEVER WILL
BE A BIT TRICKY AS ANOTHER WAVE ROTATES AROUND OUR ERN US/CAN SYSTEM
AND REINFORCES THE COLD AIR OVER THE EAST. ALSO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS
SHIFT THAT CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE, AT LEAST THROUGH MID
DAY SAT. 12Z AVN STILL SHOWING 85H RH GREATER THAN 80% OVER THE WRN
1/2 OF THE CWA SO WITH THIS COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE WILL
HOLD CLOUDS IN OVER THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS
MAY INDEED HOLD TEMPS UP HERE DURING THE NIGHT SO WILL RAISE MINS
WEST OF DDC AND HAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE EAST AM STILL LEANING TOWARDS LOWS
IN THE 30S BY SAT MORNING.

FOR SATURDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR
EAST. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER, BUT HIGHS IN THE 60S STILL SEEM
REASONABLE. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL KEEP A WARM, DRY FORECAST
GOING GIVEN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND RIDGING SPREADING EAST FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.

ERN PACIFIC LOW MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE WRN CONUS MID WEEK. TIMING
IS AN ISSUE WITH ALL MODELS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT. NO SINGLE MODEL
STANDS OUT AS A FAVORITE, BUT ALL POINT TO THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
PCPN MID TO LATE WEEK. AS A RESULT WILL KEEP MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR
LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUE MENTION OF PCPN INTO WED. TEMPS SHOULD BE
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THANKS FOR THE COORD, GLD.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   57  72  46  58/   30  20  50  20
GCK   88  55  70  42 /  30  20  50  20
EHA   93  52  72  45 /  30  20  50  20
LBL   93  55  72  45 /  30  20  50  20
HYS   85  54  66  41 /  50  20  50  20
P28   86  63  74  49 /  30  20  50  20

.DDC...NONE.

GERARD/BURGERT