Damaging Winds in Kansas, August 9, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
320 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2002

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE RAINFALL TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.

DAYS 1-2...
LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION YIELDED RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 2 AND 4
INCHES OVER NRN ELLIS AND NE TREGO COUNTIES. PCPN HERE TAPERING OFF
AT THIS TIME AS NEW CONVECTION INITIATES ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
JUST SOUTH OF DDC NEAR THE OK BORDER. CONVECTION HERE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STORMS SO FAR HAVE BEEN
MARGINAL WITH MAINLY HEAVY RAIN REPORTED BUT COULD SEE A FEW PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH SUNSET.

MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST COMES LATER TONIGHT (AFTER MIDNIGHT) AS AN
UPPER TROF MOVES OUT OF WY INTO WRN NE. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF OUR
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 25H JET, SFC FRONT AND A LLJ STRENGTHENING
BELIEVE ANOTHER MCS IS POSSIBLE. EXACT TRACK AT THIS TIME STILL
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN
OUR PREVIOUS NIGHTS STORM. THIS WOULD YIELD THE HIGHEST QPF SOUTH OF
WHERE THE 2-4 INCH BULLSEYE WAS LAST NIGHT. GIVEN THE PCPN WATER AT
KDDC OF 1.53 INCHES THIS MORNING COULD EASILY SEE ANOTHER 2-3 INCHES
TONIGHT IN SOME LOCATION EITHER FROM EVENING CONVECTION OR THE
MCS LATER TONIGHT SO WILL MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS.
AT THIS TIME HOWEVER WILL HOLD OFF WITH MENTION OF ANY TYPE OF WATCH
GIVEN MORE SOUTHERN TRACK AND DRYER CONDITIONS IN THESE LOCATIONS.

TODAY WILL BE FAVORING THE ETA/MESO-ETA ON TIMING WITH THE PCPN AND
COLD FRONT SINCE THE AVN APPEARS TO BE TO FAST MOVING OUR FRONT
SOUTH GIVEN THE LOCATION OF OUR UPPER WAVE AND 25H JET STREAK. WILL
THEREFORE KEEP MENTION OF PCPN GOING EARLY SAT MORNING IN OUR SE
WITH SKIES THEN CLEARING FROM NW TO SE. WILL BASE TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW WHAT 85H TEMPS SUGGEST GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAINFALL WHICH ARE
CLOSE TO FWC.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE MID
LVL FLOW KICKS IN. WILL GO WARMER THAN FWC/MAV OVER ALL THE CWA FOR
SUNDAYS HIGH BUT KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN ETA GUIDANCE.

DAYS 3-7...

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED INTO SW KS BY
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP 40% POPS PER PREVIOUS FCST. THIS
FRONT MAY HAVE ENOUGH PUSH TO CLEAR ALL OF SW KS BY TUESDAY. SO WE
OPTED TO TAKE OUT POPS THEN. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD BACK IF NEED BE.
ANOTHER WAVE MAY APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF STORMS.

WITH THE FREQUENT FRONTAL PASSAGES, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR
JUST BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR
HIGHS AND MAINLY 60S FOR LOWS.

HEIGHTS MAY BEGIN TO DROP IN THE NW US IN THE DAY 8-10 PERIOD, WITH
MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS WITH INTENSE HEAT ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
POSSIBLY SOUTHERN KS, AND COOL TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THANK FOR THE CORD ICT, GLD.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   66  89  67  93 /  60  20   0   0
GCK   66  89  66  94 /  80   0   0   0
EHA   64  93  64  97 /  60   0   0   0
LBL   66  92  66  94 /  60  40   0   0
HYS   65  88  66  90 /  80   0   0   0
P28   68  89  68  91 /  60  40   0   0

.DDC...NONE.

FCSTID =18/24