Damaging Wind and Lightning Strike in Kansas, August 8, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
140 PM MDT THU AUG 8 2002

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...LOW/MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE ERN
ZONES BUT WITH NO APPARENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS CONVECTION
ON UNTIL LATE WHEN THE COLD FRONT ENTERS ERN CO/FAR NWRN KS. WITH
MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC FORCING INDICATED WITH INCLUDE CHANCE POPS.

FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SWRD ACROSS THE SERN ZONES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND RICH
THETA-A AIR SHOULD AID IN PRODUCING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO COOL BASED ON
FORECAST 850 MB TEMPERATURES. WILL CONTINUE TSTMS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS MOST ZONES.

SATURDAY...NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE SELY
WINDS AND A THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SRN ZONES. BASED ON
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS...WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. GUIDANCE HIGHS AGAIN LOOK TOO COOL.

SUNDAY...NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AXIS ACROSS THE WRN ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL
LEAVE OUT MENTION OF TSTMS. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL LOOK GOOD BASED ON 850
MB TEMPERATURE PROGS.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...A STRONG S/WV TROF SWEEPS EWRD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS ON MONDAY SENDING A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY
MONDAY. WILL KEEP MONDAY DRY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND STABILIZATION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PROGGED AVN 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 16C
WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY. DRY NWLY FLOW TUE-THU...SO WILL
KEEP THESE DAYS DRY WITH A WARMING TREND.

.GLD...NONE.

RUBIN

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-082245-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1040 AM MDT THU AUG 8 2002

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND FAR EASTERN COLORADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

LATE THIS MORNING A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA
DOWN THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA.  AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SOUTH WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY CAN BE EXPECTED.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS BUT WILL NOT REACH
SEVERE LIMITS.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS... A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN TOWARD THE TRI-STATE AREA.  THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  BY FRIDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL
REACH A MCCOOK TO GOODLAND TO TRIBUNE LINE AND MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY SUNSET FRIDAY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE FRONT WITH A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

72