Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, August 23, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
329 AM CDT FRI AUG 23 2002

FCST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIP TODAY-SATURDAY.

MODELS WL NOT BE TOO MUCH HELP IN THE NEAR TERM, AS NONE OF THEM
PICKED-UP ON THE ONGOING PRECIP OVER NW KS AND WESTERN NE. GIVEN THE
MODELS PERFORMANCES LATELY AND THEIR CURRENT FORECAST DISCREPANCIES,
NO TOO CONFIDENT FOR THE FIRST COUPLE PERIODS. THE PROBLEMS THE
MODELS ARE HAVING ARE MOSTLY LIKELY RELATED TO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
AND THEIR ASSOCIATED WEAK DIFFUSE BOUNDARIES.

TODAY-TNGHT: GIVEN THE CONVECTION IN W KS DOES NOT GET INTO CENTRAL
KS BY THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD, THE BEST SHOT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE IN SE KS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST 850
MOISTURE, CAPES AND COOLEST MID LEVEL TEMPS WL BE PRESENT. ALL
MODELS DO PUSH A WEAK TROUGH THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT FEEL THERE REALLY IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TO GET TSRAS GOING. GUIDANCE IS
OUTPUTTING 40 POPS OVER SE KS, AND EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE QUITE A BIT
LESS. WITH HIGH CLOUDS SCATTERED AROUND TODAY, TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE
TRICKY. 1000-850 THICK YIELD MAXS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL, WITH SE AND CENTRAL KS IN THE LOWER 90S. THIS DOES
NOT LOOK TOO BAD. GUIDANCE LOOKS A LITTLE WARM, SO WL GO JUST BELOW.
WHICH WL BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE PREV FCST.

A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD GET GOING OVER NW KS/W NE THIS EVENING,
IN AN AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A DECENT JET. THIS AREA WL ALSO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
EASTERLY UPSLOPE SFC FLOW, WHICH SHOULD AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD APPROACH CENTRAL KS TOWARD THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. THEREFORE, WL CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER CENTRAL KS, TAPERING TO SLGHT CHANCE OVER SE KS.  PREV FCST
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK, SO WL MAKE NO CHANGE.

SAT: THE BEST SHOT OF PRECIP WL COME THIS PERIOD, AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE DIVERGENT REGION OF AN UPPER JET TEAM UP TO BRING
MUCH OF CWA PRECIP. THE SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION WL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDANT ON HOW WARM WE CAN GET. THIS WL FURTHER BE DEPENDANT ON
PREV CONVECTION AND FRONTAL POSITION. WL ONLY BUMP POPS TO 40 ACROSS
CWA WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREV FCST. WITH RAIN AROUND AREA,
TEMPS WL ONCE AGAIN BE TRICKY. WL INCREASE TEMPS ALONG KS/OK BORDER
WHICH SHOULD WARM FAIRLY NICELY AHEAD OF FRONT. WL NOT MAKE MUCH
CHANGES OTHERWISE TO PREV FCST.

SAT NGHT-THURS: PRECIP WL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT. UPPER
RIDING WL THEN COMMENCE ACROSS AREA KEEPING PRECIP OUT OF THE FCST.
BOTH ECMWF AND GFS BRING A SFC TROUGH AND WEAK FRONT ACROSS CWA LATE
TUES INTO WED. BUT FOR NOW WL NOT INSERT PRECIP SINCE STILL A WAYS
OUT. BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED OF PRECIP IS ENTERED WITH LATER
ZONES PACKAGES.

FCSTID = 7
ICT   95  70  88  68 /  10  20  40  30
HUT   93  70  85  67 /  10  20  40  20
EWK   93  70  85  67 /  10  20  40  20
EQA   94  70  86  68 /  10  20  40  30
WLD   95  70  90  69 /  10  10  40  30
RSL   92  69  82  64 /  10  30  40  10
GBD   92  69  84  64 /  10  30  40  20
SLN   93  70  83  65 /  10  30  40  10
MPR   93  70  85  67 /  10  30  40  20
CFV   94  70  89  69 /  20  20  40  30
CNU   93  70  86  67 /  20  20  40  30
K88   93  70  86  67 /  20  20  40  20

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

LAWSON