Damaging Winds and Lightning Strikes in Indiana, August 23, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
220 PM EST FRI AUG 23 2002

MAIN PROBLEM THIS FORECAST IS THE COVERAGE AND DURATION OF RAIN.
RADAR SHOWS SCT CONVECTION IN SC AND SE SECTIONS OF STATE AHEAD OF
SE BOUND MCS OVR SRN IL. ALSO SCT STORMS WITH VORT LIKE FEATURE OVER
NRN IN MOVG E. FLOOD THREAT APPEARS OVER AS MCS DEBRIS HAVE KEPT
WATCH AREA STABLE TODAY WITH LITTLE RAIN AND NO SIGNIF RAIN EXPECTED
IN THIS AREA THIS EVE.

MODELS DIFFER SOME ON WHERE HEAVIEST PCPN TO FALL BUT ALL SUGGEST
CDFNT TO SLIP THRU CWA DURING NGT. GIVEN ONGOING EVENT...ETA APPEARS
BEST WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS SRN IL SLIPPING SE ACRS SRN INDIANA AND
INTO KY OVRNGT. SECONDARY AREA BY SOME MODELS FROM EC INDIANA INTO
OHIO MAY TAKE PLACE IN OHIO BUT NOT LIKELY HERE. QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO OVERNIGHT OR SAT MORN BUT GIVEN
TRENDS THUS FAR EXPECT MOST WILL CARRY OUT THIS AFTN AND EVE.

GRADUAL DRYING TAKES PLACE THRU SAT THEN SEASONABLE WX THRU FCST
PERIOD.

GUIDANCE POPS FROM AVN APPEARED A BIT HI TNGT GIVEN CURRENT AND
EXPECTED COVERAGE SO LEANED TO ETA CHC VALUES. GIVEN SLOW FALL OF
DEWPOINTS LOWS NEAR 70 OVRNGT APPEARED REASONABLE. AND WITH THAT AS
STARTING POINT LOW AND MID 80S TOMORROW ON TRACK. AGAIN SEASONAL
TEMPS IN GUIDANCE REST OF FCST LOOKS GOOD.

.IND...NONE
DRT