Hail and Damaging Winds in Indiana, June 5, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
310 AM EST WED JUN 5 2002

CHALLENGE IN MORNING FORECAST IS HOW HIGH TO GO ON POPS IN ADVANCE OF
FRONT AND WHAT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE TODAY.

FRONT ATTM STILL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA WITH ONGOING CONVECTION
IN ADVANCE OF FRONT OVER NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. FRONTAL
POSITION ESTIMATED TO BE FROM TOL...IND...LWV BY 18Z AND ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER BY 00Z. EXPECT CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
TO OCCUR OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO NORTHWEST INDIANA ALONG FRONT. THIS
WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH COLD FRONT AND BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF THE CWA TODAY. MOS POPS IN LIKELY OR BELOW
CATEGORY BUT FAVOR AT A MINIMUM LIKELY CATEGORY WITH OCCASIONAL OVER
FAR NORTHERN AREAS. DO SUSPECT MOST AREAS TO HAVE SOME RAINFALL WITH
HEAVIEST PROBABLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA AS MORE VIGOROUS TSTMS DEVELOP. SPC OUTLOOK FOR
SLIGHT RISK CONFINED TO SE HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT DID
NOT STRESS IN ZONES. HIGHEST RH FIELD TO SHIFT TO FAR SOUTH INDIANA
BY 06Z SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEAST CWA AREAS
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CLEARING MOST AREAS BY 12Z THURSDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY COULD BE A BIG PROBLEM IF ANY SUNSHINE SNEAKS
THROUGH AS READINGS STILL HOVERING IN THE MID 70S WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECT GOOD CLOUD COVER THOUGH AND RISES SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES MOST AREAS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE
MID 50S ALLOWING MINS TO SETTLE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

.IND...NONE.
RPG