Tornado in Florida, June 5, 2002

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
338 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2002

CURRENTLY...STILL ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...
BUT NOT QUITE AS THICK AS YESTERDAY.  A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO POP
UP OVER CENTRAL ZONES WHERE CLOUDS ARE THINEST.  NORMALLY IN
SOUTHEAST FLOW WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NUMEROUS
ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BUT
WITH WEAK INVERSION AROUND 870 MB ALONG WITH THE ABUNDANT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS...ONLY EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

FORECAST...MODELS GIVING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST.  WILL LEAVE SCATTERED
POPS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ABUNDANT
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.  OVER THE WEEKEND AN INTO NEXT WEEK EASTERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL AND WILL GO WITH CLIMATOLOGY AND LEAVE SCATTERED
CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S OVER
THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S.

MARINE...DIFFERENCES NOTED IN WIND FIELDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH ETA/NGM TRYING TO SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION AS FRONT PUSHES INTO SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE AVN CONTINUES
SOUTHEAST FLOW.  WILL GO WITH THE AVN SOLUTION FOR NOW AND CONTINUE
THE SOUTHEAST FLOW...EXCEPT BECOMING ONSHORE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES EACH AFTERNOON.

FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
BKV 071/092 072/091 3333
TPA 075/091 075/091 3333
GIF 073/093 073/092 2323
SRQ 074/090 073/089 3333
FMY 074/092 073/092 3333

.TBW...NONE.

PRC