Hail in Indiana, April 19, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
410 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2002

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL REFLECT THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.

ETA MODEL IS PREFERRED MODEL THIS MORNING PER NCEP MODEL DISCUSSION.
AVN SEEMS TO HAVE LOW A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH TOWARD 60 HOURS THUS
PREFER ETA POSITION OF FRONT OVER LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

THIS MORNING MAINLY MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER FA AND THESE SHOULD
THIN DURING THE DAY THE THICKER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
WITH SOME SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S BUT NOT
AS WARM AS THURSDAY.

WITH MORE MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED INTO AREA AND WITH FRONT SLOWLY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD FA WILL KEEP CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
FA...MAINLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS AREA AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS AIR BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE.

FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD KY DURING DAY SATURDAY BUT CLOUDS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. ETA (AS WELL AS AVN) SHOWING A BREAK
IN THE SHOWERS...AT LEAST MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS...FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND TRIED TO EXPRESS THIS IN FORECAST
WORDING.

SHOWERS RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MADE SOME CHANGES TO EXTENDED AFTER QUICK LOOK AT GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES. WILL WAIT TO MAKE MORE CHANGES.

.SDF...NONE.

SCHOLZ

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-191954-

CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1010 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS DOES NOT
INCLUDE SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

A COLD FRONT...LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST INDIANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI...WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE...AND AMPLE MOISTURE EXISTS.
IN ADDITION...SOME WIND SHEAR IS NOTED THIS MORNING IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...IT WILL ACT AS A
MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED.

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR THE LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION. SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY
BE REQUESTED LATER TODAY.

JMB

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-192000-

CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
128 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
INDIANA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A COLD FRONT...LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST INDIANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI...WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO BE UNSTABLE...WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. IN ADDITION...SOME WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN NOTED IN
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL ACT AS A
MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING SHOULD ALSO BE
EXPECTED.

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR
YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET...FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION. SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

JMB