Hail in Indiana, April 19, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
154 PM EST FRI APR 19 2002

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES PROGGED BY MODELS TO RIDE ALONG FRONT...
STRONGEST WAVE WILL BE SAT NIGHT WITH BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AND
MOISTURE. FOR TONIGHT...FRONT NOW SAGGING OUT OF CWA AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD END FOR MOST OF CWA BY ISSUANCE TIME OR
JUST AFTER. SINCE NOTHING NOTED SO FAR ON 88D AND JUST TOWERING
CUMULUS ON SATELLITE...DO NOT PLAN ON KEEPING THUNDER MENTION IN
FOR THIS EVENING. WEAK IMPULSE ALONG FRONT IN AR/MO REGION TO MOVE
ALONG FRONT OVERNIGHT. UPPER SUPPORT WEAK AND MOISTURE LIMITED AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES DRY NORTHEAST. AVN AND ETA APPEAR TO MOVE
MOISTURE TOO FAR NORTH IN COLD AIR...BUT WITH PROXIMITY OF FRONT
AND FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY STILL LOOKING DRY. EXCEPTION STILL MAY BE SOUTHEAST AREAS
WHERE LINGERING SHOWERS FROM SFC WAVE LINGER. DO NOT PLAN TO ADD
POPS FOR SATURDAY AT THIS TIME. MODEL TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE SOME DRYING DURING THE DAY SO SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY....THEN INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT
WAVE. MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER AND THEREFORE WL DROP POPS INTO THE CHC
CATEGORY EASTERN AREAS AND CONTINUE LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST.
TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS SCHEMES INDICATE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE AT ONSET AND STRONG OMEGA WOULD HELP DYNAMICALLY COOL AS
WELL. TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE KEY.
SINCE NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMS OR PROBLEMS DUE TO WARM SURFACE
LAYER...WL HOLD OFF MENTION RIGHT NOW. WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...SUNDAY IS LOOKING TO BE A VERY COOL DAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY GOOD SYSTEM
SWEEPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. MRF HAS SLOWED THIS FEATURE DOWN FROM ITS
LAST RUN. WILL KEEP THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW AS SYSTEM CLEARS OUT TO
THE EAST BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ADDED EVENTUALLY...ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY MORNING IN OHIO. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS ON FRIDAY.

.IWX...NONE.

LASHLEY/12

OHZ016-024-025-200000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
650 PM EST FRI APR 19 2002

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING
NORTHWEST OHIO COUNTIES...

PUTNAM...VAN WERT AND ALLEN.