Hail in Illinois, April 2, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
230 AM CST TUE APR 2 2002

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT STILL LINGERING OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF CEN IL ATTM...MAINLY ACROSS BMI AND PIA. WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM
A SFC WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WRN IL WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING ONWARD INTO SRN KS.  STRONG COLD FRONT POISED IN NWRN IA
AND SRN NB WITH STRONG PRES RISES NOTED NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.
QUESTIONS TDY ARE PCPN CHCS AND COOL DOWN WITH COLD FRONT AS IT
SURGES ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILIAR WITH THE SFC WAVE IN ERN MO MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF CEN IL THIS MORNING...WITH THE COLD FRONT
IN NEB WAITING UNTIL AFTER THE WAVE PASSES TO RETURN THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIP CHCS. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS HAVE TO DO WITH PLACEMENT OF
THE QPF AND TEMP DROPOFF...PREFER AVN MODEL OVERALL.  MODELS ALL
HINTING THAT PRECIP WILL BE POST FRONTAL TDY WITH MAIN COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH PIA BY 12Z ...WITH COLD FRONT REACHING SPI...DEC AND
CMI BY 18Z.  SO UNTIL WAVE PASSES EARLY THIS MORN...EXPECT LITTLE OR
NO PRECIP.  EVEN WITH POST FRONTAL SHRAS...QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
LIGHT.  WILL GO WITH A LIKELY POP TDY...BUT WILL CUT BACK ON
TSRA CHC IN THE NRN SECTIONS WITH BEST TSRA CHC IN SERN IL...WHERE
FROPA WILL BE LATER TDY AND WARMING MORE SIGNIF.  LOTS OF CAA SLATED
TO MOVE INTO CEN IL AFTER THE FROPA...SO DO EXPECT SOME FALLING
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA TDY...BUT MAYBE NOT AS DRAMATIC AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED.  SOME TEMPS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT MAY NOT
MOVE MUCH AT ALL TDY...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT HAVE SOME SNOW CVR.
PIA MAY BE THE ONLY PLACE THAT HAS A CHC TO REBOUND FROM CHILLY
MORNING NUMBERS AND CAA AS CLOUDS CLR OUT OF HERE BEFORE SUNSET.
WILL GO FALLING TEMPS SOUTH OF WARM FRONT WERE AM TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND SLOWLY FALL.

AS TEMPS FALL ANY LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE EAST MAY TURN OVER TO
IP/SN THIS EVE.  WILL CONTINUE THIS WORDING AS LOW LYRS REMAIN
SATURATED.

STRONG COLD CORE HIGH PRESS MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR WED AND
THU...WITH TIGHT GRADIENT AND CHILLY CONDITIONS ON WED.  COLD FRONT
TAKES MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF IL...SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLR
CONDITIONS.  ONLY PROBLEMS WILL BE UNSEASONALBY COLD TEMPS.  DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPS TO COMPLETELY BOTTOM OUT TUES NIGHT AS GRADIENT REMAINS
TIGHT. BUT RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WED NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN SOME AREAS
DROPPING TO NEAR RECORD LOWS.

NWRLY UPR FLOW AND HIGH PRESS RIDGE KEEPS MOST OF IL DRY INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATING.  NEXT CHC OF PCPN APPEARS TO
BE ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT
S/WV THAT MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE GRT LKS BY SUN AFTN.
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE ZONES LOOKS FINE FOR NOW.  WILL LOOK AT
TEMPS A LITTLE CLOSER BUT FORESEE ONLY MINOR CHGS.

PRELIMARY CCF FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...

SPI WU 056/028 043/026 049 22600
PIA WB 042/026 039/024 049 22620
DEC WU 055/028 043/026 049 22620
CMI WB 052/028 041/025 048 22730
MTO WU 052/028 042/028 048 22740
LWV WU 060/032 044/030 050 22740

.ILX...NONE.

KETCHAM

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-021230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
600 AM CST TUE APR 2 2002

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL OR
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

PLAHMER