Damaging Winds in Idaho, June 26, 2002

SOUTHWEST IDAHO/SOUTHEAST OREGON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE IDAHO
355 PM MDT WED JUN 26 2002

AS TEMPS SOARED INTO THE MID 90S VALLEYS AND UPPER 80S MOUNTAINS AS
OF 3PM CAP BROKE AND FEW TS HAVE BROKE OUT IN CENTRAL-BOISE MTNS
TOWARDS STANLEY WHILE MTN CLOUDS INCREASE.  RUC SHOWS HIGHEST CAPE
(1-3KJ/KG) SHIFTING FROM AN OWYHEES-STEENS-BLUE MTNS AXIS THIS
EVENING INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS NORTHWARD AROUND 03-06Z/9PM-MIDNIGHT
MDT.  THIS INSTABILITY IS NEAR LOW LEVEL THERMALLY INDUCED TROF AXIS
AN WILL BE TRIGGERED BY SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW NEAR ORE-IDA-NEVADA
TRI-STATE POINT THIS AFTERNOON LIFTING INTO SW IDAHO OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.  SHEAR INCREASES FROM 15KTS IN 12Z SOUNDING TO 20-30KTS IN
FCST SNDG AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES.  SO TS CELLS SHOULD BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AND LONGER LIVED LATER THIS AFTN.  LOWER PW SOUTH (0.5)
FOR GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH BUT MUCH HIGHER PW NORTHWEST (1.5 BKE 3Z)
FOR LOCAL HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL BUT NOT AS MUCH ON GUSTS 20-30 MPH.

WEAK MARINE PUSH INTO BKE THURSDAY DOESNT APPEAR TO MAKE IT INTO
S-CENTRAL IDAHO AS THERMAL RIDGE HANGS ON A LITTLE BETTER BUT UPPER
HEIGHTS DO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR HIGHS
STILL ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL - AROUND 95 VALLEYS AND 80S MTNS.
DRYER SUNDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THEN TIGHTER WESTERLY FLOW MONDAY
THRU WEDNESDAY.  LAST NIGHTS MRF LESS AMPLIFIED WITH MONDAY COOLING
AND KEEPS TROFFING MAINLY OFFSHORE SO WILL BROAD BRUSH EARLY NEXT
WEEK EXTENDED WITH CLOUDS NORTH AND MOSTLY CLEAR SOUTHEAST.

.BOI...NONE.

MILLS