Damaging Wind in Idaho, July 18, 2002

SOUTHEAST IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO/IDAHO FALLS ID
320 PM MDT THU JUL 18 2002

MID LEVEL MSTR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO ID FROM THE SE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW OVR N CEN CA.  CONVECTION OCCURRING OVR MOST OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN RESPONSE TO THE AFTN INSTABILITY.  PW VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 1 INCH HAVE CREATED THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ...AS THE CELLS HAVE TRENDED TO MOVE SLOWLY OR EVEN BACKBUILD.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT BELIEVE THE THREAT
TO REMAIN LOCALIZED.  THUS...WILL NOT GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND DRIFT TO THE NE...CONVECTION
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON FRI...BUT MODELS PROJECTING MOST OF THE MSTR
TO BE OVER THE NRN CWA.   WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS OVR THE CEN MTNS
AND NE HIGHLANDS.  LINGERING MSTR OVR NE HIGHLANDS ON SAT WILL GIVE A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE AFTN/EVE...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED.

ANOTHER MINOR WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW MAKES ITS WAY INTO SE ID ON TUE.
THIS SHOULD BE GOOD FOR ANOTHER THREAT OF CONVECTION...BUT NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE CURRENT EVENT.  UPPER HIGH/RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE 4 CORNERS AREA BY WED.  THIS SHOULD LEAVE SE ID DRY AND
A LITTLE WARMER.

HEDGES

.KSFX...OPERATIONAL...VCP 11

BYI 60/85/56 620

.PIH...NONE.

PIH BB 060/087 055/086 086 07422