Funnel Cloud in Hawaii, May 3, 2002

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION AND GUIDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
4 PM HST FRI MAY 3 2002

SUMMARY...LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHEAST
WINDS THIS WEEKEND. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY...THANKS TO A LOT OF HIGH
CLOUDS COMING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO
OUR SOUTHWEST IS THREATENING TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE STATE. THE
WET WEATHER WILL BEGIN SATURDAY...AND LAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...THE AVN MODEL NO LONGER DEVELOPS A TIGHT LOW SOUTHWEST
OF HAWAII. AS THE NOGAPS MODEL HAS BEEN DOING ALL ALONG...THE AVN
NOW DEVELOPS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. IT WAITS UNTIL MONDAY TO BRING A MUCH WEAKER
LOW CLOSE TO KAUAI...AND THAT LOOKS A BIT SUSPICIOUS. BOTH THE AVN
AND NOGAPS MODELS END UP WITH A LOW NORTHWEST OF HAWAII WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY THAT MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTHWEST. THE AVN PERSISTS IN
BRINGING A LOT OF RAIN UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SO MUCH SO...THAT IT
IS DIFFICULT TO IGNORE. HENCE THE FORECAST FOR HEAVY SHOWERS. THE
NOGAPS MODEL ALSO BRINGS HEAVY RAIN UP OVER THE STATE...BUT TO A
LESSER EXTENT THAN THE AVN. SINCE A STRONG CONVECTIVELY INDUCED LOW
IS NO LONGER IN THE CARDS...THE FORECAST HAS BACKED OFF ON THE
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE TENDENCY IS TO
LOOK AT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND MOVING THEM
OVER THE STATE. IN FACT...THE SOURCE OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS.

A STRONG LOW IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND
WILL SEND A SUBSTANTIAL SWELL IN OUR DIRECTION. THE SWELL SHOULD
REACH HAWAII WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY PROBABLY REQUIRING A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY OR EVEN A HIGH SURF WARNING FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES. CRAIG.

.HFO...WARNINGS...WATCHES...NONE
.......ADVISORIES...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK