Heavy Rain in Hawaii, May 12, 2002

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION AND GUIDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
4 AM HST SUN MAY 12 2002

SUMMARY...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS CHAIN. THE THREAT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THUS
EXISTS. WINDS ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AT THE
MOMENT. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN A TAD AND BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
WITH TIME. DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM IS FLOWING ACROSS OUR REGION
WITH SOME RATHER RICH MOISTURE BELOW IT. CONSIDERABLE HIGH AND
MIDDLE CLOUDINESS THUS IS PRESENT ALONG WITH THE USUAL LOW CLOUDS.
SOME OF THE HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS ITS ORIGIN IN CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...CB...TO THE WEST OF HAWAII. ONE LARGE SUCH CB IS LOCATED
JUST WEST OF KAUAI...HOWEVER IT LOOKS RATHER INACTIVE AT THE MOMENT
WITH A LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN UNDERNEATH IT. THE JET STREAM
ABOVE US IS BECOMING ORIENTED WNW/ESE WHICH WOULD SUGGEST LESS OF A
TROUGH AT THAT LEVEL TO THE WEST OF THE ISLANDS. BELOW THE JET
LEVEL THE FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY EXCEPT CLOSE TO SURFACE IN THE
LOWER 7 THOUSAND FEET WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT EASTERLIES. THE PROGS
STILL BRING SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS OUR REGION DURING
THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS BEFORE CLEARING THE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

SURF ALONG THE SOUTH SHORES HAS REACHED 8 TO 12 FEET. SURF WILL
REMAIN AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURF WILL START TO
DECREASE MONDAY EVENING AND WILL PROBABLY DROP BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  ROSENDAL

.HFO...WARNINGS.....NONE
.      WATCHES......NONE
.      ADVISORIES...HIGH SURF S SHORES...FLOOD POTENTIAL OTLK KAUAI.