Flash Flooding in Georgia, September 18, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
215 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2002

S/W TROF AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET MAX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
UPSTATE SC THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  WHILE MOST OF THE RAIN AND
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THU.  THE JET MAX MOVES SOUTHEAST OFF
THE COAST ON THU PUTTING US IN A FAVORABLE RR QUAD.  BY LATE THU AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH FROM FL UP THE COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS
AS A STRONG UPPER TROF DIGS THOUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THIS
WILL LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND KEEP US IN A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW.   MAV AND ETA MOS ARE TRENDING
THE POPS DOWNWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND SEE NO
REASON TO DISAGREE.  FRI AND SAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.

EXTENDED...ISIDORE BECOMES THE WILDCARD.  UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH
THE COUNTRY ON FRI LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ON STEERING ISIDORE.  AS ISIDORE MOVES NORTHWEST INTO THE
GULF...THE NORTHERN STREAM RETREATS TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.
LEAVING FAIRLY WEAK STEERING FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION.  WITH
LONG RANGE FORECASTS OF ISIDORE KEEPING THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OUT
TO DAY 7...WILL KEEP IN MENTION OF SOME CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...NO FLAGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.  GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK WITH SEAS AVERAGING 2 TO 3 FEET.

CHS   73  86  71  86 /  30  30  10  00
SAV   72  87  71  87 /  30  30  10  00
CHL   77  83  76  83 /  30  30  10  00
NBC   74  86  74  86 /  30  30  10  00
RBW   71  88  71  90 /  30  30  10  00
MHP   72  89  72  91 /  30  30  10  00

.CHS...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

PY