Damaging Wind in Georgia, July 6, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
305 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2002

FOR THE SHORT TERM...SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWS A FRONTAL ZONE
CUTTING ACROSS EXTREME SW NC AND UPSTATE SC. THIS FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SAG S THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY TRIGGER SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF IT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERNMOST ZONES BEFORE IT EXITS AROUND SUNSET...ESPECIALLY
WITH A WEAK WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE N THIS EVENING. WILL MAKE
THE CALL FOR A SMALL POP OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE EVENING
JUST BEFORE ISSUING THE ZFP...BUT AM INCLINED TO INCLUDE IT WITH
THESE ZONES IN A SLGT RISK OF SVR THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHER THAN THAT...WEATHER LOOKS QUIET COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS THE CUTOFF LOW OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND/CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES FILLS AND LIFTS NE. THE ONLY CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...AND A SLIGHT ONE AT THAT...SHOULD BE WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WILL BRING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS BACK ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS A RETURN OF MOISTURE. MODELS
SUGGEST UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS EARLY SUNDAY...BUT I
THINK THE RH MIGHT BE A BIT OVERDONE AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY TONIGHT/SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM. TONIGHT COULD BE TRICKY
AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES. THINK THE
TEMP GRADIENT WILL FALL ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...SO I
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE THERE. OTHER THAN THAT...TEMPS
LOOK SEASONABLE.

EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH DURING EXTENDED. COLD FRONT APPROACHES AREA
WED...STALLING OVER AREA THU/FRI...WASHING OUT SAT. HAVE EXTENDED
CONVECTION FROM WED THROUGH WED NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES IN...THEN
RAISED CLOUDS/POPS THU/FRI. POPS REDUCED TO SMALL CHANCE SAT IN AIR
MASS CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES START NEAR NORMAL WED. MAX
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH CLOUDS THU/FRI...THEN WARMING SAT.
MIN TEMPERATURES HELD UP BY CLOUDS.

GSP   67  90  67  90 /   0  10  10  20
AND   68  90  67  90 /  10  10  10  20
CLT   67  90  67  92 /   0  10  10  10
HKY   63  88  63  90 /   0  10   0  10
AVL   61  85  62  85 /   0  20  10  20

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

MOORE/07

GAZ018-026-028-029-SCZ004>014-019-062100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
101 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2002

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF EXTREME
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS GREATEST ALONG A LINE FROM ELBERTON IN
GEORGIA...TO GREENWOOD IN SOUTH CAROLINA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.

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