Heavy Snow in Georgia, January 2 to 3, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
320 PM EST WED JAN 2 2002

SNOWFALL IS STARTING TO ADD UP ACROSS NE GA AND SRN PIEDMONT ZONES
WHERE ENHANCED SNOW BANDS HAVE WORKED IN. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS SURFACE LOW
MOVES UP COASTAL WATERS OF S CAROLINA OVERNIGHT...INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO THE REGION. BEST UPGLIDE BAND SHOULD PIVOT AWAY
FROM THE SW ZONES AND MORE TOWARD THE CLT METRO AREA OVERNIGHT.
MODEL QPF NUMBERS SHOW NEARLY .5 INCH OVERNIGHT LIQUID EQUIVALENT AT
CLT AND ANOTHER .5 INCH TOMORROW...BUT QPF NUMBERS ARE LIKELY
OVERDONE PER HPC DISCUSSION. EVEN HALVING THE NUMBERS GIVES SOLID
STORM CRITERIA SNOWFALL VALUES...AND GARCIA TECHIQUE USING MIXING
RATIO IN ISENTROPIC LAYERS OF INTEREST STILL SHOWS SOME 6 TO 8 INCH
POTENTIAL IN EASTERN SECTIONS. ARRIVAL OF 500 MB LOW SHOULD EXTEND
DEFORMATION ZONE OMEGA BACK INTO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT ON THURSDAY
TO CONTINUE ACCUM.

PER COORD CALL...WILL HAVE WARNING EXTEND FROM ELBERT GA TO METRO
CLT AND NORTHWARD ALONG INTERSTATE 77 TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WILL
BUMP CLT METRO SNOWFALL TOTALS TO 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE EVENT...WITH
GENERALLY 3 TO 5 INCHES TO THE NORTH NEAR STATESVILLE AND SOUTHWEST
TOWARD GA.

WILL ISSUE ADVISORY FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM STEPHENS GA THROUGH GSP
TO HKY ALONG THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD STAY GENERALLY
UNDER 1 INCH ACROSS THE NC MTNS.

MAY HAVE WIND CHILL CONCERNS IN STRONG NW MTN FLOW ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO ADDRESS THIS AT A LATER TIME.

FCSTID = 33
GSP   26  30  19  44 /  80  60  20   0
AND   26  30  19  44 /  80  60  20   0
CLT   26  30  19  43 /  90  80  20   0
HKY   25  28  17  40 /  70  60  20   0
AVL   23  28  17  38 /  60  50  20   0

.GSP...
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ZONE GAZ029.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ZONES
     GAZ018-026-028.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ZONES
     NCZ036>037-057-071>072-082.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ZONES
     NCZ035-056-068>070.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ZONES
     SCZ009-011>014-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ZONES
     SCZ004>008-010.

HG

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-034-048>055-058-059-062>067-SCZ001>003-030400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 PM EST WED JAN 2 2002

...SNOWFALL WILL MAKE ROADS SLIPPERY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL WATERS OFF SOUTH
CAROLINA...WILL SEND ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WHILE THE TRACK OF THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO STAY JUST FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP THE HEAVY SNOW
CONFINED TO PIEDMONT SECTIONS...AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW MAY
ACCUMULATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING GENERALLY IN THE 20S THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL STICK TO ROADWAYS AND MAKE THEM
QUITE SLIPPERY.

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AND PRODUCE WIND
CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS.

IF TRAVELING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS OR
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...USE EXTREME CAUTION. STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES ON THIS WINTER WEATHER SITUATION.

HG