Hail in Florida, September 6, 2002

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
210 PM EDT FRI SEP 6 2002

...CORRECTED WARNING LINE TO NOT INCLUDE TPA BAY IN SCEC TONIGHT...

CURRENTLY...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SLOW TO START ACROSS FA. SOME SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE S FA IN NW TO SE LINES. LARGER NW TO SE
BAND OF CONVECTION OFFSHORE...ON THE EXTREME SE PERIPHERY OF DYING TD
OVER THE N GULF. OTHER SCT LIGHT SHOWERS POPPING OVER ECENT FL...AND
EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE...MAINLY CENT
AND S FA LATER TODAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TIDAL NOTE: TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN 1/2 TO 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA...LIKELY DUE TO SET UP FROM TS FAY OVER THE W GULF. SOME
MINOR ROAD FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN TARPON SPRINGS...OTHERWISE
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING PROBS NEXT FEW DAYS.

--SHORT TERM DISC--
DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE E U.S. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN BY MON. THIS KEEPS LOWER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND BELOW NORMAL POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER TROF AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE SE OF THE BAHAMAS SAT...
MOVING NORTHWARD TO OFF THE MID ATLC COASTAL STATES MON. LOW LEVEL
ENE FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH THROUGH SUN TO LIKELY HOLD OFF
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE...BUT THEN WEAKENS AND BECOMES NORTHERLY MON.
MODEL POPS CONTINUE TO BE VERY LOW AROUND 20%. WILL GO 20-30% SAT AND
SUN...WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER THE S FA WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
LINGER LONGER. COULD SEE LOW POPS EVEN INTO MON DEPENDING ON STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF LOW WELL EAST OF THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. AVN EVEN
SUGGEST SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW TOWARD THE N FA LATER
SUN...BUT TOO UNCERTAIN TO WORRY ABOUT THAT DETAIL YET. GUIDANCE
TEMPS SEEM OK. SFC TDS EXPECTED TO FALL TOWARD 70 THIS WEEKEND...A
TAD MORE COMFORTABLE.

--EXTENDED--
OLD AVN/MRF RUN HAD A SFC LOW OVER THE W GULF COMING BACK ENE TOWARD
THE FA WED...WHICH LOOKED BOGUS. NEW AVN RUN KEEPS SFC SHEAR AXIS AND
HIGH MOISTURE BAND OVER THE CENT GULF AND FL STRAITS TUES AND MOVES
IT INTO S FL/S FA WED AS BROAD UPPER TROF TRIES TO DEVELOP DOWN THE
EAST COAST LATER TUES AND WED. WILL TREND TOWARD HIGHER POPS S FA
WED...BUT POPS STILL LOOK BELOW NORMAL REST OF THE AREA BOTH TUE AND
WED. UNCERTAIN ABOUT THURS AND FRI. UPPER TROF OVER THE E U.S.
APPEARS TO BE PROGRESSIVE...WHICH SHOULD GIVE SLOW TREND BACK TOWARD
ESE FLOW AND MORE NORMAL POPS.

--MARINE--
MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL SCEC CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
PART OF SAT. FOR NOW WILL GO SCEC FOR TONIGHT AND WORD FOR WEAKENING
WINDS LATER SAT. NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED SUN AND BEYOND.

PRELIM #S:
BKV 071/090 070/090 2223
TPA 073/090 072/090 2222
GIF 072/090 071/090 1212
SRQ 072/090 072/090 2322
FMY 073/090 073/090 3333=

.TBW...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT BONITA BCH TO SUWANNEE
       RVR NOT INCLUDING TPA BAY.

MORALES