Tropical Storm in Florida, September 12 to 14, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
355 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2002

RUNNING SLOW THIS MORNING (COMES WITH AGE).  BIG QUESTION THIS
FORECAST IS TRACK OF DEPRESSION LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO,
SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA.  TD #9 MAY STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY AND BECOME
TROPICAL STORM HANNA.  THE PUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM AS WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED FOR PART OF THE GULF
COAST LATER TODAY.  BOTH ETA AND AVN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF MOVING
THE DEPRESSION SLIGHTLY WEST OF NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN
NORTH AND NORTHEAST.  WILL GO WITH AVN SOLUTION WHICH TRACKS THE LOW
JUST A LITTLE WEST OF PREVIOUS TRACK.  WILL BASE FORECAST ON THIS
TRACK.  IF LOW GOES FURTHER WEST THEN MORE PRECIP WILL OCCUR ACROSS
CWA IF IT GOES FURTHER EAST, WE COULD SEE NOTHING.  SINCE SYSTEM IS
NOT TOTALLY TROPICAL IN NATURE MOST OF PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF
CENTER.  FIRST PROBLEM TODAY IS HOW HIGH WILL TEMPS GET THIS
AFTERNOON.  WE APPROACHED RECORD HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME TYING THE RECORD FOR THAT DATE.  WITH DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AGAIN APPROACH NEAR
RECORDS.  SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EAST PART
OF CWA LATE TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS BY MORNING.  BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INLAND ALABAMA COUNTIES THAT BORDER THE
PANHANDLE.  WITH MORE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS WARM.
LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY WITH CHANCES OF
RAIN DIMINISHING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA.  AVN TEMPS LOOK OKAY.

EXTENDED...WILL LEAVE EXTENDED FORECAST AS IS.  WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ON MONDAY.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A LITTLE
DRIER AND LESS HUMID.

FIRE...WILL PUT OUT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF
THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON FOR MARGINAL LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES.

MARINE...WINDS/SEAS WILL BUILD AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 APPROACHES
THE EAST PART OF THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.  OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THE MARINE FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TD #9.

PRELIM...
MOB UE 095/072 089/073 092 01--3
PNS UT 094/074 086/075 088 01-25
DTS UT 092/075 085/075 088 99-37
GZH UB 094/070 086/071 089 99-14
2RO UB 094/066 091/069 092 99-02
61A UB 096/069 085/071 088 99--4

01/12

.MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FLZ001-003-005.
MS...NONE.

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-121800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
545 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2002

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 9 LOCATED SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE DEPRESSION MAY STRENGTHEN
AND BECOME TROPICAL STORM HANNA LATER TODAY AND WATCHES AND WARNINGS
MAY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST.   COASTAL EMERGENCY
MANAGERS SHOULD STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.